Good morning,
I just received a steep price increase from my energy provider enercity, raising the cost to 15 cents per kWh starting in August. That’s really tough, and I think prices will rise even further.
It’s a strange feeling to be thrown back so quickly into an energy supply situation where you have to figure out how to keep the house warm. It seems to me that the government has given up on the goal of enabling everyone to adequately cover at least their basic needs.
Goodbye central supply structures; now the winner is whoever has solar panels and a heat pump in their new build, while the others are left out.
Welcome back, coal heating 😕
Frustrated regards,
I just received a steep price increase from my energy provider enercity, raising the cost to 15 cents per kWh starting in August. That’s really tough, and I think prices will rise even further.
It’s a strange feeling to be thrown back so quickly into an energy supply situation where you have to figure out how to keep the house warm. It seems to me that the government has given up on the goal of enabling everyone to adequately cover at least their basic needs.
Goodbye central supply structures; now the winner is whoever has solar panels and a heat pump in their new build, while the others are left out.
Welcome back, coal heating 😕
Frustrated regards,
C
chand198615 Jul 2022 12:27The 1.5°C target is a GLOBAL goal, and I would bet any amount that this target will be missed. For the old 2°C target, I give 2 to 1 against it being met.
Reasoning:
a) It’s not a lack of technology, but rather a lack of social innovations. We don’t know HOW to coordinate the world’s population—with its diverse goals and values—well enough to turn the big wheels. We don’t even have corresponding global institutions in the pipeline.
b) As long as the hunger for fossil fuels remains UNMET worldwide, savings in one place are simply sold and burned elsewhere. What Germany or the EU reduces slightly lowers the global market price a bit, and more is then bought in Asia and Africa. The global CO2 emissions remain unaffected. Oil that is extracted from the Earth will be burned.
b)* Which brings us back to a): We do not have a global institution that steadily and linearly raises the oil price continuously over decades. How could we? But that is exactly what would encourage market forces to gradually switch to other alternatives in the long term.
—————
It is important to emphasize, however, that any reduction in warming helps to reduce damage and risks, even if the above goals are not reached. Please remember this: a +2°C (3.6°F) average means over +4°C (7.2°F) on land, because the oceans react much more slowly to warming and cover a much larger area of the Earth. We are already occasionally seeing temperatures near 40°C (104°F) in summer… just saying.
Reasoning:
a) It’s not a lack of technology, but rather a lack of social innovations. We don’t know HOW to coordinate the world’s population—with its diverse goals and values—well enough to turn the big wheels. We don’t even have corresponding global institutions in the pipeline.
b) As long as the hunger for fossil fuels remains UNMET worldwide, savings in one place are simply sold and burned elsewhere. What Germany or the EU reduces slightly lowers the global market price a bit, and more is then bought in Asia and Africa. The global CO2 emissions remain unaffected. Oil that is extracted from the Earth will be burned.
b)* Which brings us back to a): We do not have a global institution that steadily and linearly raises the oil price continuously over decades. How could we? But that is exactly what would encourage market forces to gradually switch to other alternatives in the long term.
—————
It is important to emphasize, however, that any reduction in warming helps to reduce damage and risks, even if the above goals are not reached. Please remember this: a +2°C (3.6°F) average means over +4°C (7.2°F) on land, because the oceans react much more slowly to warming and cover a much larger area of the Earth. We are already occasionally seeing temperatures near 40°C (104°F) in summer… just saying.
D
Deliverer15 Jul 2022 12:31Scout** schrieb:
In summary, it can be stated with good reason that what is happening globally in terms of supply destruction and price increases due to the energy transition will not reduce demand and will overall lead to a higher energy consumption, especially from fossil energy sources. You have nicely gone in circles with your argument. ;-)
Since you have now noticed it yourself—you are installing photovoltaic systems—just a quick note for others: The affordable energy sources are the renewables. The expensive ones, which are causing the current economic and climate crisis, are the fossil fuels. (In addition, nuclear power is several orders of magnitude more costly, so it’s not worth mentioning here.) So, if we “suffer” this winter, it is due to too few renewables being available. The reason why light switches are still working in France and the German electricity market price remains somewhat reasonable is the small amount of renewables that was able to develop despite all obstacles.
Now please try to build the argument properly from the beginning.
Scout** schrieb:
WE will achieve the 1.5°C goal on our own. Absolutely, without a doubt. At least as certain as retirement.
This may sound arrogant. But one should not confuse arrogance with knowledge.
I don’t want to praise myself, but unfortunately it’s true: I have a degree in electrical engineering, know the technology, and can do the math instead of just imagining things. I’m currently installing a lot of photovoltaic panels on my roof. Because I can calculate. Because it’s a great addition. But I’m not claiming that I’m saving the world because of it, nor that I could disconnect from the power grid. The latter would be uneconomical to the point of ruin, for me and especially for an entire economy. And as I just explained, it wouldn’t be beneficial for the planet either if this happened only here. I suspect your sentence above contains at least as much irony as the sarcasm in the part quoted by @Deliverer?
Germany definitely can’t and won’t save the world, so what? Is that a reason to keep going as before?
I actually wanted to write a long essay about the historical origins of the catastrophe here, but I’ve lost interest.
D
Deliverer15 Jul 2022 12:39chand1986 schrieb:
There is no global institution that has been steadily increasing oil prices linearly for decades. Not globally yet, but somewhat locally: More and more countries are introducing carbon pricing. These tend to be countries with a very limited remaining carbon budget. They have the financial means and can afford it.
For example, India has a much larger carbon budget and can theoretically take until around 2050 for decarbonization.
And the hopeful sign, of course, lies in the energy price: Oil production is currently becoming rapidly more expensive, while wind and solar have reached costs of about one cent per kWh. Expansion in renewables is now happening extremely fast. And eventually, people in Germany will notice this and follow suit. Bet on it! ;-)
D
Deliverer15 Jul 2022 12:42@motorradsilke Come on Silke, join in.
Why does my post make you sad? Did I say something wrong? Do you have any arguments to refute my claim, or do you just not like it?
Why does my post make you sad? Did I say something wrong? Do you have any arguments to refute my claim, or do you just not like it?
@Deliverer, generally, I tend to agree with you, but you already mentioned it yourself... "arguments to refute my claims..." Just provide evidence for your claims, and many discussions will resolve themselves.
What exactly will carbon-neutral energy supply look like for an industrialized country in the future?
What exactly will carbon-neutral energy supply look like for an industrialized country in the future?