ᐅ Gas Prices – Where Is Gas Still Affordable?

In der Ruine schrieb:

You are overlooking something crucial. Yes, it has grown over a few years and absorbed CO2. But this happened over millions of years.
The vast amounts of fossil fuels we are recklessly burning today have stored CO2 from millions of years. They are trapped sunlight from millions of years ago. And now we are releasing this energy and huge quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere within decades.
Therefore, the expected ice age is canceled, and we instead face climate change.

That is the timing argument I am referring to when balancing the equation.

If regrowth and combustion absorb and release CO2 at different speeds, then the balance argument is flawed. People understand this with fossil fuels but not with fresh wood!?

motorradsilke schrieb:

Why would it release more CO2 if you only plant during the first 20 years until harvesting maturity?

But no one planted accordingly. The starting point of the balance is the first combustion, and from that point on, what I wrote above applies if you replace 1:1.

Otherwise, you are right about moderation, and of course wood can be a heating alternative if, due to global politics, nothing else is affordable. But the CO2 emissions are as they are.

Deliverer schrieb:

Actually, this whole wood discussion is unnecessary: We need to get to net zero CO2 within the next 10 to 30 years (there are different acceptance levels here...)

That will not happen on a global scale. Targets like the 1.5°C goal will certainly be missed. I am a defeatist in this regard.

Deliverer schrieb:

You are absolutely right. Currently, Germany's wood consumption is about twice as high as it should be.

Considering the amounts of broken and beetle-infested wood lying around, which have been sold abroad as machine graded structural timber (KVH), I see this only as a temporary problem.

Lars Kanopke schrieb:

The question remains: how will Germany heat homes and generate electricity in the future?

Coal from Russia is sanctioned. It’s a primary raw material for electricity generation in Germany!
Now it is being imported from Australia, China, or Indonesia, making it very expensive just due to transportation. It is also in short supply because everyone wants to avoid Russian coal.

Gas from Russia is sanctioned. Nord Stream 2 is not being activated, although it is operational.
Gas is also a primary raw material for our electricity production, but we want to become independent of it.

Photovoltaics only work when the sun shines and unfortunately not much in winter. There are very high bureaucratic hurdles and major delivery difficulties. Huge dependence on Asia here. Photovoltaic component production barely exists anymore in Germany.
This does not look like a fast and reliable electricity supplier.

Wind power theoretically works in winter but only when it is windy. The government’s expansion plans are entirely unrealistic.
The last manufacturer of wind turbine blades in Germany just closed production. These blades now come from China as well.
Manufacturers’ capacities would need to be increased by two-thirds to meet political targets. That’s not feasible.

Decentralized combined heat and power systems require oil or gas. Meaningless.

Nuclear power would also require fuel rods and raw materials from Russia, and Russia has already announced counter-sanctions, so nothing will come through. Nuclear power will no longer be available in Germany. This is therefore not an option.

Wood from Russia is also sanctioned. Here, too, delivery bottlenecks are already noticeable, along with drastic price increases for firewood.

In short, electricity will be a very big problem in the future. Therefore, electrifying heating and simultaneously increasing e-mobility is economic suicide.

At 35°C (95°F) and sunshine, hardly anyone thinks about winter. But we can get our first night frosts in 10 weeks.

I just had my photovoltaic system connected by an electrician. After a two-hour test run, the fully installed system was sealed until the grid operator inspects and approves it. Until then, the system produces no electricity. None!
How long this will take? Three to four months, maybe six months.

So, we are told to save electricity, which also saves gas—cold showers, wear a sweater, etc. But within a few days, to have a photovoltaic system approved that can generate about 100 kW of solar electricity daily, we can’t manage that. Approval in November doesn’t help much because until the end of February, little electricity will be produced anyway.

Hundreds, even thousands of photovoltaic systems are waiting for grid operator approval. There are media reports about this too.
Now it turns out there are no electricity meters available on the market. These two-way meters with anti-backflow mechanisms are very hard to buy. They come from the Far East.

What else can we do here? Just buy some popcorn and watch the country decline.

Maybe just one point that concerns you personally: commission the system (with an electrician), report the commissioning, and start producing (feeding in and self-consuming) electricity. You will receive a retroactive payment of the feed-in tariff. No photovoltaic system has to wait for an “ominous” grid operator approval (there are indeed suitable, relatively consumer-friendly laws/regulations). Ask “Pflanze” from the forum that can’t be named here. Don’t be afraid.

And yes, unfortunately you are right about many things, but being pessimistic won’t help. Bureaucratic hurdles will likely be reduced so that renewable energy sources can be built and connected faster. Hope dies last.

chand1986 schrieb:

This will not happen on a global scale.

Oh, they are all waking up right now. Australia (the coal nation) has decided to phase out coal after losing entire regions to flooding several times a year.
The oil-producing countries are strongly investing in hydrogen, while the USA and China are expanding renewable energy as if there is no tomorrow (maybe because there actually isn’t one...).

But whatever: Let’s just be at the forefront because these technologies will be sold like hotcakes for the next 50 years. Let’s fight climate change simply because it will make us rich!

What about fast-growing plants like bamboo? Could that be an option? Or do they capture less CO2 and have too low an energy content? Some species grow 20cm (8 inches) per day and could be processed into good pellets...

Scout** schrieb:

Until a few months ago, the energy transition was planned with 40 newly built gas power plants. Only with these as backup would it have been feasible. It should be clear now that these will no longer be gas plants, right? With this, the transition as originally planned has already failed.

Electric power accounts for about 20% of the total energy consumed in this country. Currently, we can generate about 8% of that from renewable energy. So the gap is not 2%, but 10%, by roughly a factor of 5 when considering heat pumps and electric vehicles. However, the marginal benefit will decrease with each additional percent – that means every extra percentage point will become more expensive to achieve than the previous one.

You should discuss the “baseload and peak load problems” with a neutral engineer rather than with agenda-driven politicians, sociologists, environmental scientists, PowerPoint acrobats, and other know-it-alls. And it is best to have explained to you how, out of more than 10,000 km (6,200 miles) of newly needed (yes, not optional. Necessary!) high-voltage transmission lines, less than 1,000 km (620 miles) have been built after 10 years. And that is just one of many essential elements that have completely gone off track.

You are, of course, right when you assume I believe this can be done “overnight” or within 1–2 years. I am not “naive”; it is a tough struggle and a hard fight involving many temporary setbacks, including losses in prosperity, before we reach the future I have outlined. And a purely “energy production transition” will not be enough; an energy consumption transition is also necessary. Sectors like mobility and industry will have to undergo major transformations. Owning a “personal” car will simply no longer be the norm.

There is plenty of experience available. Photovoltaic and wind power components were once manufactured here. Who says that is no longer possible?

P.S. I have a neutral engineer sitting right behind me in the office every day 😀