ᐅ Heat pumps, electricity prices, gas prices – where is the trend heading?
Created on: 29 Apr 2016 11:52
T
tabtab
Hello everyone,
Yes, the topic in the title really concerns me. And I can imagine I’m not alone in this.
Basically, it’s like reading a crystal ball, but based on the information I’ve gathered so far, this is what it means to me:
1) Electricity prices will rise significantly over the next few years due to the Renewable Energy Act surcharge and grid expansion. Just this morning, I read another interesting and shocking article about this.
2) The heat pump lobby is working hard to position the heat pump as the “cure-all” solution for the energy transition. The government is jumping on this bandwagon.
3) In the current version of the Energy Saving Ordinance, electricity is rated much more favorably than gas. This means that simply by using a heat pump, your energy certificate looks much better than someone combining gas with solar.
4) From 2020 onwards, every new building should meet Passive House standards—so it’s foreseeable that gas will become the new diesel in about four years. “Penalty taxes” on fossil fuels like gas and oil are currently being debated sharply. The draft legislation is expected before the summer break—certainly not to the advantage of us homeowners!
5) If you give in to the fear that gas will soon be totally out, you end up in the hands of energy companies, who have just been forced to pay for a (ridiculous) part of the energy transition (and the phase-out of nuclear power plants)—the rest falls on the government, and thus on us.
6) Because of point 5, as a good citizen with an eco-conscious mindset, you become completely dependent on the electricity providers. Customers gain importance... no longer are you just relying on household electricity, now a new cash cow emerges—that of the heat pump operators. It’s an easy way to punish customers again for the nuclear phase-out through expensive tariffs. In many places, heat pump tariffs have already collapsed. Consumers have to accept rising prices. And who changes electricity suppliers every year—hardly anyone!
7) Assuming annual price increases of 3% or more, it makes a difference whether I only pay more for household electricity or also for heating electricity—it’s clear we will definitely continue to be charged heavily.
8) Gas prices are currently low and stable. In many areas, they are being reduced. Natural gas reserves will last for thousands of years. This means price increases are not triggered by a lack of supply, especially since Iran—with the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves—will soon enter the market.
Conclusion: The heating decision for a new building has never been harder! It has been weighing on me for a year now. At first, we planned for an air-to-water heat pump, then gas, then back to air-to-water heat pump, and now I’m wavering again on whether gas might actually be the right choice.
Heat pump supporters like to say that less energy is consumed than with gas, and that electricity and maintenance costs for a gas heating system are eliminated, as well as chimney sweeping. But is that really true? And can you rely on that if electricity prices keep rising and gas prices stay constant or even fall? Sooner or later, mandatory maintenance for heat pumps will also come. This is currently being discussed—as the trades are losing the lucrative service contracts for oil and gas systems.
Can we expect long-term low prices here, and will this widen the cost gap between gas and heat pumps? And how can you make yourself less dependent on the long-term arbitrariness of providers when choosing a heat pump? Photovoltaics + storage? Certainly an option, but also the most expensive.
What is your view on this? How did you make your decision? Looking forward to the discussion.
-------------------------------
You’re not new to the forum, right? Could you please refrain from posting links?
Thank you!
BuildingExpert
Yes, the topic in the title really concerns me. And I can imagine I’m not alone in this.
Basically, it’s like reading a crystal ball, but based on the information I’ve gathered so far, this is what it means to me:
1) Electricity prices will rise significantly over the next few years due to the Renewable Energy Act surcharge and grid expansion. Just this morning, I read another interesting and shocking article about this.
2) The heat pump lobby is working hard to position the heat pump as the “cure-all” solution for the energy transition. The government is jumping on this bandwagon.
3) In the current version of the Energy Saving Ordinance, electricity is rated much more favorably than gas. This means that simply by using a heat pump, your energy certificate looks much better than someone combining gas with solar.
4) From 2020 onwards, every new building should meet Passive House standards—so it’s foreseeable that gas will become the new diesel in about four years. “Penalty taxes” on fossil fuels like gas and oil are currently being debated sharply. The draft legislation is expected before the summer break—certainly not to the advantage of us homeowners!
5) If you give in to the fear that gas will soon be totally out, you end up in the hands of energy companies, who have just been forced to pay for a (ridiculous) part of the energy transition (and the phase-out of nuclear power plants)—the rest falls on the government, and thus on us.
6) Because of point 5, as a good citizen with an eco-conscious mindset, you become completely dependent on the electricity providers. Customers gain importance... no longer are you just relying on household electricity, now a new cash cow emerges—that of the heat pump operators. It’s an easy way to punish customers again for the nuclear phase-out through expensive tariffs. In many places, heat pump tariffs have already collapsed. Consumers have to accept rising prices. And who changes electricity suppliers every year—hardly anyone!
7) Assuming annual price increases of 3% or more, it makes a difference whether I only pay more for household electricity or also for heating electricity—it’s clear we will definitely continue to be charged heavily.
8) Gas prices are currently low and stable. In many areas, they are being reduced. Natural gas reserves will last for thousands of years. This means price increases are not triggered by a lack of supply, especially since Iran—with the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves—will soon enter the market.
Conclusion: The heating decision for a new building has never been harder! It has been weighing on me for a year now. At first, we planned for an air-to-water heat pump, then gas, then back to air-to-water heat pump, and now I’m wavering again on whether gas might actually be the right choice.
Heat pump supporters like to say that less energy is consumed than with gas, and that electricity and maintenance costs for a gas heating system are eliminated, as well as chimney sweeping. But is that really true? And can you rely on that if electricity prices keep rising and gas prices stay constant or even fall? Sooner or later, mandatory maintenance for heat pumps will also come. This is currently being discussed—as the trades are losing the lucrative service contracts for oil and gas systems.
Can we expect long-term low prices here, and will this widen the cost gap between gas and heat pumps? And how can you make yourself less dependent on the long-term arbitrariness of providers when choosing a heat pump? Photovoltaics + storage? Certainly an option, but also the most expensive.
What is your view on this? How did you make your decision? Looking forward to the discussion.
-------------------------------
You’re not new to the forum, right? Could you please refrain from posting links?
Thank you!
BuildingExpert
tabtab schrieb:
Basically, it’s like reading a crystal ball what, ...This statement probably sums it up best.
Five to eight years ago, you would have likely been met with strong disbelief for asking such a question. Back then, oil and gas prices were steadily rising with no end in sight. Oil and gas were widely criticized, and everyone was focused solely on heat pumps. No one could have imagined that the situation would reverse.
I believe, similar to the stock market, there is a cyclical up and down in oil and gas prices. Now that prices have dropped significantly again, certain production methods (such as oil sands) will no longer be profitable and will be halted. Then prices will rise again until these methods become profitable once more, and so on.
The only argument against this theory is the capital requirements of oil-producing countries. Russia CURRENTLY MUST sell oil and gas to stabilize its budget. So, they fill the gap when, for example, other OPEC countries support production cuts to stabilize prices.
tabtab schrieb:
Natural gas reserves are sufficient for thousands of years, meaning price increases are not triggered by lack of supply ... Is that really the case? If oil reserves are expected to run out, why would huge gas reserves still be available? Especially since associated gas is often flared during oil production.
I’m not asking this provocatively, but because it’s the first time I’ve come across this statement.
The only thing that might support this idea is new methods of natural gas extraction. However, I’m rather skeptical about fracking and others.
Regarding our electricity consumption, we have at least partially become self-sufficient with our own photovoltaic system. Is it cost-effective? Probably yes—I’m quite optimistic about it.
Currently, we have not yet combined the heat pump with the photovoltaic system because we’ve chosen the cheaper heat pump electricity tariff so far. But if that cost rises beyond a certain point, we will have the electrician do the work and switch over.
Yes, a few months ago I read an article (I think in Die Welt or Der Spiegel) that stated it is now believed that much more gas can be extracted thanks to new extraction technologies and methods like LNG and GTL, since even associated gases (so-called operational gases) released during raw material extraction can be used for energy production. Additionally, it is assumed that the global demand for fossil fuels will decline. Furthermore, new, enormous fields are continuously being developed, and countries like Iran with large reserves are being given access to the market. Taken together, this leads to estimates that reserves will last thousands of years.
However, I consider it naive to claim, as the architect did, that no house has ever been heated as cheaply as today. Sure, things were different 15 years ago. But houses back then were not insulated as well as they are today. The financial effort required is considerable. First, you invest thousands of euros in better insulation standards and then you are happy with just a few hundred euros (or dollars) saved per year. This does not mean I am against it. Absolutely not. But using this comparison to justify the efficiency of a heat pump is quite misleading. This is also why hardly anyone considers installing heat pumps in older buildings... because their efficiency cannot compete with gas condensing boilers or pellet heating systems. After all, electricity has the lowest efficiency when it comes to generating heat.
However, I consider it naive to claim, as the architect did, that no house has ever been heated as cheaply as today. Sure, things were different 15 years ago. But houses back then were not insulated as well as they are today. The financial effort required is considerable. First, you invest thousands of euros in better insulation standards and then you are happy with just a few hundred euros (or dollars) saved per year. This does not mean I am against it. Absolutely not. But using this comparison to justify the efficiency of a heat pump is quite misleading. This is also why hardly anyone considers installing heat pumps in older buildings... because their efficiency cannot compete with gas condensing boilers or pellet heating systems. After all, electricity has the lowest efficiency when it comes to generating heat.
f-pNo schrieb:
This statement probably sums it up best.
Is this really the case? If oil reserves are expected to run out soon, why would there still be large gas reserves? Especially since the gas released during oil extraction is usually flared.
I’m not asking provocatively, but because this is the first time I’ve read this claim.
The only thing that might support this theory are the new methods of natural gas extraction. However, I am rather skeptical about fracking and so on.
.Exactly this gas that is flared is now intended to be recovered. Regarding fracking, I am also skeptical, but more because I believe the world will have no choice but to use it. Unfortunately. There is also an interesting article on this topic.
nordanney schrieb:
Yes, with a heat pump you don’t have maintenance costs and you don’t need a chimney. It’s a different matter if you want to install a fireplace anyway.
Personally, I don’t see it that way, since there isn’t much to maintain—similar to a refrigerator.
Manufacturers are increasingly taking a different view… and it’s only a matter of time before it becomes mandatory in order to keep the warranty valid. Let’s be honest, it will come sooner or later.By the way, how long does a heat pump actually last? Does anyone know of any long-term studies?
And on the topic of heat pumps, here is a critical experience report from a journalist.
Of course, there are positives and negatives on both sides. Therefore, the topic cannot be conclusively resolved and it remains a matter of speculation... but I find your opinions on this interesting. So far, heat pump + photovoltaic system + battery storage seems to stand out.
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I have deleted the link in accordance with the forum rules – also because the post is from 2013 and I am almost certain it refers to an air-to-air heat pump.
Best regards, Bauexperte
Of course, there are positives and negatives on both sides. Therefore, the topic cannot be conclusively resolved and it remains a matter of speculation... but I find your opinions on this interesting. So far, heat pump + photovoltaic system + battery storage seems to stand out.
------------------------------
I have deleted the link in accordance with the forum rules – also because the post is from 2013 and I am almost certain it refers to an air-to-air heat pump.
Best regards, Bauexperte
N
nordanney29 Apr 2016 13:34tabtab schrieb:
It is also assumed that the global demand for fossil fuels will decline. Now there are good arguments again. Why is demand decreasing? Electricity generation from renewable sources as an alternative. More and more new power producers = falling prices!?
Decline in oil/gas production = falling prices, because of high reserves, or rising prices as more companies withdraw from the market because it is uneconomical (current oil/gas prices compared to costs are already clearly too low)!?
So it’s all just a look into the crystal ball.
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