ᐅ Heat pumps, electricity prices, gas prices – where is the trend heading?
Created on: 29 Apr 2016 11:52
T
tabtab
Hello everyone,
Yes, the topic in the title really concerns me. And I can imagine I’m not alone in this.
Basically, it’s like reading a crystal ball, but based on the information I’ve gathered so far, this is what it means to me:
1) Electricity prices will rise significantly over the next few years due to the Renewable Energy Act surcharge and grid expansion. Just this morning, I read another interesting and shocking article about this.
2) The heat pump lobby is working hard to position the heat pump as the “cure-all” solution for the energy transition. The government is jumping on this bandwagon.
3) In the current version of the Energy Saving Ordinance, electricity is rated much more favorably than gas. This means that simply by using a heat pump, your energy certificate looks much better than someone combining gas with solar.
4) From 2020 onwards, every new building should meet Passive House standards—so it’s foreseeable that gas will become the new diesel in about four years. “Penalty taxes” on fossil fuels like gas and oil are currently being debated sharply. The draft legislation is expected before the summer break—certainly not to the advantage of us homeowners!
5) If you give in to the fear that gas will soon be totally out, you end up in the hands of energy companies, who have just been forced to pay for a (ridiculous) part of the energy transition (and the phase-out of nuclear power plants)—the rest falls on the government, and thus on us.
6) Because of point 5, as a good citizen with an eco-conscious mindset, you become completely dependent on the electricity providers. Customers gain importance... no longer are you just relying on household electricity, now a new cash cow emerges—that of the heat pump operators. It’s an easy way to punish customers again for the nuclear phase-out through expensive tariffs. In many places, heat pump tariffs have already collapsed. Consumers have to accept rising prices. And who changes electricity suppliers every year—hardly anyone!
7) Assuming annual price increases of 3% or more, it makes a difference whether I only pay more for household electricity or also for heating electricity—it’s clear we will definitely continue to be charged heavily.
8) Gas prices are currently low and stable. In many areas, they are being reduced. Natural gas reserves will last for thousands of years. This means price increases are not triggered by a lack of supply, especially since Iran—with the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves—will soon enter the market.
Conclusion: The heating decision for a new building has never been harder! It has been weighing on me for a year now. At first, we planned for an air-to-water heat pump, then gas, then back to air-to-water heat pump, and now I’m wavering again on whether gas might actually be the right choice.
Heat pump supporters like to say that less energy is consumed than with gas, and that electricity and maintenance costs for a gas heating system are eliminated, as well as chimney sweeping. But is that really true? And can you rely on that if electricity prices keep rising and gas prices stay constant or even fall? Sooner or later, mandatory maintenance for heat pumps will also come. This is currently being discussed—as the trades are losing the lucrative service contracts for oil and gas systems.
Can we expect long-term low prices here, and will this widen the cost gap between gas and heat pumps? And how can you make yourself less dependent on the long-term arbitrariness of providers when choosing a heat pump? Photovoltaics + storage? Certainly an option, but also the most expensive.
What is your view on this? How did you make your decision? Looking forward to the discussion.
-------------------------------
You’re not new to the forum, right? Could you please refrain from posting links?
Thank you!
BuildingExpert
Yes, the topic in the title really concerns me. And I can imagine I’m not alone in this.
Basically, it’s like reading a crystal ball, but based on the information I’ve gathered so far, this is what it means to me:
1) Electricity prices will rise significantly over the next few years due to the Renewable Energy Act surcharge and grid expansion. Just this morning, I read another interesting and shocking article about this.
2) The heat pump lobby is working hard to position the heat pump as the “cure-all” solution for the energy transition. The government is jumping on this bandwagon.
3) In the current version of the Energy Saving Ordinance, electricity is rated much more favorably than gas. This means that simply by using a heat pump, your energy certificate looks much better than someone combining gas with solar.
4) From 2020 onwards, every new building should meet Passive House standards—so it’s foreseeable that gas will become the new diesel in about four years. “Penalty taxes” on fossil fuels like gas and oil are currently being debated sharply. The draft legislation is expected before the summer break—certainly not to the advantage of us homeowners!
5) If you give in to the fear that gas will soon be totally out, you end up in the hands of energy companies, who have just been forced to pay for a (ridiculous) part of the energy transition (and the phase-out of nuclear power plants)—the rest falls on the government, and thus on us.
6) Because of point 5, as a good citizen with an eco-conscious mindset, you become completely dependent on the electricity providers. Customers gain importance... no longer are you just relying on household electricity, now a new cash cow emerges—that of the heat pump operators. It’s an easy way to punish customers again for the nuclear phase-out through expensive tariffs. In many places, heat pump tariffs have already collapsed. Consumers have to accept rising prices. And who changes electricity suppliers every year—hardly anyone!
7) Assuming annual price increases of 3% or more, it makes a difference whether I only pay more for household electricity or also for heating electricity—it’s clear we will definitely continue to be charged heavily.
8) Gas prices are currently low and stable. In many areas, they are being reduced. Natural gas reserves will last for thousands of years. This means price increases are not triggered by a lack of supply, especially since Iran—with the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves—will soon enter the market.
Conclusion: The heating decision for a new building has never been harder! It has been weighing on me for a year now. At first, we planned for an air-to-water heat pump, then gas, then back to air-to-water heat pump, and now I’m wavering again on whether gas might actually be the right choice.
Heat pump supporters like to say that less energy is consumed than with gas, and that electricity and maintenance costs for a gas heating system are eliminated, as well as chimney sweeping. But is that really true? And can you rely on that if electricity prices keep rising and gas prices stay constant or even fall? Sooner or later, mandatory maintenance for heat pumps will also come. This is currently being discussed—as the trades are losing the lucrative service contracts for oil and gas systems.
Can we expect long-term low prices here, and will this widen the cost gap between gas and heat pumps? And how can you make yourself less dependent on the long-term arbitrariness of providers when choosing a heat pump? Photovoltaics + storage? Certainly an option, but also the most expensive.
What is your view on this? How did you make your decision? Looking forward to the discussion.
-------------------------------
You’re not new to the forum, right? Could you please refrain from posting links?
Thank you!
BuildingExpert
I pay 45 € per month for hot water and heating—with the devilish heat pump ;-)
I don’t know any previous generation that got heat so incredibly cheaply...
Regarding your question: I firmly believe that electricity generation will continue to decentralize, and in the long term, electricity prices will likely decrease.
I don’t know any previous generation that got heat so incredibly cheaply...
Regarding your question: I firmly believe that electricity generation will continue to decentralize, and in the long term, electricity prices will likely decrease.
M
maniac66929 Apr 2016 12:14Hello,
I happened to have a conversation about this today with our architect, who reviewed the heating costs of the houses he has built over the past 15 years. It turned out that on average, the heat pump group saved about 500 euros per year compared to the gas heaters.
However, since heat pumps are significantly more expensive, it’s actually not really worthwhile to install one if you can simply get gas.
I happened to have a conversation about this today with our architect, who reviewed the heating costs of the houses he has built over the past 15 years. It turned out that on average, the heat pump group saved about 500 euros per year compared to the gas heaters.
However, since heat pumps are significantly more expensive, it’s actually not really worthwhile to install one if you can simply get gas.
M
maniac66929 Apr 2016 12:16BeHaElJa schrieb:
I pay 45 € per month for hot water plus heating with the devilish heat pump ;-)
I don’t know any previous generation that got heat so incredibly cheaply...
Regarding your question: I firmly believe that power generation will continue to decentralize and that electricity prices will tend to decrease in the long term.And with gas, it probably would have been 100 euros.Now the question is what your heat pump cost and how long it will last without breaking down...
Well calculated ;-)
The project cost about 20,000 euros including the drilling – approximately 4,500 euros will probably be reimbursed by BAFA.
Gas boiler, connection, and chimney (if you can’t avoid it) are certainly not much cheaper… but somewhat less expensive.
I don’t think 100 euros – the cost for one kWh of gas is about 7 cents, while for my heat pump it is 5 cents; that would mean a maximum of 20 euros more per month… if at all.
I now believe that all three heating options (gas, air-to-water heat pump, ground-source heat pump) do not differ much in the long run – assuming you only buy what is necessary and don’t add extra buffer tanks here, thermal storage there, photovoltaics, batteries, and so on.
The project cost about 20,000 euros including the drilling – approximately 4,500 euros will probably be reimbursed by BAFA.
Gas boiler, connection, and chimney (if you can’t avoid it) are certainly not much cheaper… but somewhat less expensive.
I don’t think 100 euros – the cost for one kWh of gas is about 7 cents, while for my heat pump it is 5 cents; that would mean a maximum of 20 euros more per month… if at all.
I now believe that all three heating options (gas, air-to-water heat pump, ground-source heat pump) do not differ much in the long run – assuming you only buy what is necessary and don’t add extra buffer tanks here, thermal storage there, photovoltaics, batteries, and so on.
N
nordanney29 Apr 2016 12:34tabtab schrieb:
Gas prices are currently low and stable. In many places, they are even decreasing. Natural gas reserves are sufficient for thousands of years, meaning price increases will definitely not be caused by a lack of supply, Thousands of years? Current estimates are around 200 years, but of course the question remains what developments might occur in the future (extraction costs, companies’ production capacities, etc.).But when I think about the ongoing shift towards renewable energies = electricity, and the further development of photovoltaics for self-consumption (keyword: home energy storage), electricity as an energy source for heating becomes very interesting.
On top of that, energy consumption in new buildings will continue to decrease in the coming years. For me, that makes potential electricity price increases less of an issue.
Example: We have only a KfW 70 house from 2014 and have to heat 300sqm (3,229 sq ft). For that, we pay just over €50 per month for electricity (including hot water for five people – we use geothermal energy). Even if electricity prices doubled, it wouldn’t really affect me. Smaller or more energy-efficient houses might even require less.
In terms of investment costs, there isn’t much difference between a heat pump and gas (if you take the gas connection and grants like BAFA into account).
tabtab schrieb:
Conclusion: The heating decision for a new build has never been harder! It’s been on my mind for a year. At first we favored an air-to-water heat pump, then gas, then back to air-to-water heat pump, and now I’m wavering again whether gas might actually be the right choice. No, with proper system design, you’ll do well with either option.tabtab schrieb:
Heat pump proponents often say that less energy is consumed compared to gas. That there are no electricity or maintenance costs for gas heating, and no need for chimney sweeping. But is that really true? Yes, with a heat pump you don’t have maintenance costs and you don’t need a chimney. It’s a different story if you plan to install a fireplace anyway.tabtab schrieb:
Sooner or later, there will also be mandatory maintenance for heat pumps. This is already being discussed – after all, the tradespeople are losing the lucrative maintenance contracts for oil and gas systems. Personally, I don’t see it that way, since there isn’t much to maintain, similar to a refrigerator.My personal opinion: heat pump + photovoltaics and maximizing self-consumption, including electricity storage.
Similar topics