ᐅ CO2 Footprint of Gas Heating vs. Heat Pumps in New Construction
Created on: 17 Nov 2024 16:30
K
Konsument4
Recently, there was a discussion among acquaintances about the idea of installing a gas heating system in a new single-family house in 2025 (according to my source/Statista, about 10% still did this in 2023). I researched this topic somewhat (including with the help of ChatGPT, o1-preview) and came across results that seem somewhat out of step with the current general attitude.
- In a 300 sqm (3,230 sq ft) KfW-55 house (minimum standard for 2024, energy efficiency class A with 40 kWh/m2/year), the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system compared to a heat pump amount to about 1.6 tons of CO2 per year. (Calculation: Gas: 300 m2 × 40 kWh/m2/year = 12,000 kWh/year; 12,000 kWh × 0.202 kg CO2/kWh = 2,424 kg CO2/year; Heat pump - annual performance factor 4.5, German electricity mix 300 g CO2/kWh: 12,000 kWh ÷ 4.5 = 3,429 kWh/year; 3,429 kWh × 0.3 kg CO2/kWh = 1,028.7 kg CO2/year => 2,424 kg CO2/year − 1,028.7 kg CO2/year = 1,395.3 kg CO2/year)
- Compensating 1.6 tons of CO2 costs about 40 euros on atmosfair. Two tons cost 50 euros.
- In 2024, a heat pump costs roughly 35,000 euros, while a gas heating system costs around 15,000 euros. (There is no direct subsidy for heat pumps in new builds.)
That means, if I compensate the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system over 20 years, it costs me about 800 euros. If I pay 1,000 euros, I have still done something positive for the environment overall. On the other hand, there is an upfront cost difference of about 20,000 euros for the heat pump. Spending 20,000 euros for an outcome I can achieve with 1,000 euros seems disproportionate to me.
Currently, the price per ton of CO2 is about 30 euros; even if this price rises to 400 euros by 2045 (allegedly a worst-case scenario), I would still come out cheaper with gas (1.6 tons × 400 euros/ton = 640 euros per year in 2045, and likely significantly less before that).
Of course, my calculation is based on various average values, but unless I am seriously wrong in at least one area, the result seems quite clear: If I install a gas heating system in a new single-family home and at least compensate for the CO2 emissions, it appears I come out cheaper and could still do something good for the environment with the savings.
Am I missing something? What else should be considered? Does the calculation contain a major incorrect assumption or wrong average value?
PS: I have seen the thread about gas heating systems 23/24, but in my opinion, the topic of the CO2 footprint was not discussed there, and towards the end, the thread went off-topic anyway.
- In a 300 sqm (3,230 sq ft) KfW-55 house (minimum standard for 2024, energy efficiency class A with 40 kWh/m2/year), the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system compared to a heat pump amount to about 1.6 tons of CO2 per year. (Calculation: Gas: 300 m2 × 40 kWh/m2/year = 12,000 kWh/year; 12,000 kWh × 0.202 kg CO2/kWh = 2,424 kg CO2/year; Heat pump - annual performance factor 4.5, German electricity mix 300 g CO2/kWh: 12,000 kWh ÷ 4.5 = 3,429 kWh/year; 3,429 kWh × 0.3 kg CO2/kWh = 1,028.7 kg CO2/year => 2,424 kg CO2/year − 1,028.7 kg CO2/year = 1,395.3 kg CO2/year)
- Compensating 1.6 tons of CO2 costs about 40 euros on atmosfair. Two tons cost 50 euros.
- In 2024, a heat pump costs roughly 35,000 euros, while a gas heating system costs around 15,000 euros. (There is no direct subsidy for heat pumps in new builds.)
That means, if I compensate the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system over 20 years, it costs me about 800 euros. If I pay 1,000 euros, I have still done something positive for the environment overall. On the other hand, there is an upfront cost difference of about 20,000 euros for the heat pump. Spending 20,000 euros for an outcome I can achieve with 1,000 euros seems disproportionate to me.
Currently, the price per ton of CO2 is about 30 euros; even if this price rises to 400 euros by 2045 (allegedly a worst-case scenario), I would still come out cheaper with gas (1.6 tons × 400 euros/ton = 640 euros per year in 2045, and likely significantly less before that).
Of course, my calculation is based on various average values, but unless I am seriously wrong in at least one area, the result seems quite clear: If I install a gas heating system in a new single-family home and at least compensate for the CO2 emissions, it appears I come out cheaper and could still do something good for the environment with the savings.
Am I missing something? What else should be considered? Does the calculation contain a major incorrect assumption or wrong average value?
PS: I have seen the thread about gas heating systems 23/24, but in my opinion, the topic of the CO2 footprint was not discussed there, and towards the end, the thread went off-topic anyway.
K
Konsument417 Nov 2024 23:37RotorMotor schrieb:
I am quite certain that installing a heat pump in a new build can be done at the same cost as a gas heating system. The 35,000 euros for the heat pump compared to 15,000 euros for a gas heating system (both including installation) comes from a more recent YouTube video. In another video, it is explained in detail that installing a heat pump in Germany cannot be done for under 30,000 euros. I am not an expert, but if this assumption is actually incorrect, then the matter is settled. Can you provide a source for that?
Google tells me that annual maintenance costs for a heat pump are around 300 euros. I have no personal experience with either gas or heat pumps.
Are you calculating the 1,400 euros as the annual cost to offset the CO2 footprint? Okay, so my entire comparison is based on the assumption that CO2 offsetting is not fraudulent and actually has an impact – meaning the total extra CO2 emissions are compensated upfront over the lifetime for 800 euros.
I will look into what is actually to be made of CO2 offsetting, such as with atmosfair. The whole comparison stands or falls with that.
@Konsument4 .. I get the impression that you’re not really willing to think about the content of your inquiry, but rather trying to create some kind of justification with your strange calculation. Essentially, you are disregarding the CO2 reduction.
Please read again post 21 by @RotorMotor and reflect on the offer you have received. Because that’s where the error in the system lies.
Please read again post 21 by @RotorMotor and reflect on the offer you have received. Because that’s where the error in the system lies.
Konsument4 schrieb:
The 35,000 euros for the heat pump versus 15,000 euros for a gas heating system (both including installation) come from a more recent YouTube video. And in another video, it was thoroughly calculated that installing a heat pump in Germany does not cost less than 30,000 euros. Oh my God... you can’t be serious.
Then take a look here in the relevant sections. And do better research before trusting any videos.
Konsument4 schrieb:
Are you calculating the 1400 euros as the annual repayment for offsetting the CO2 footprint? Okay, so my whole comparison is based on the assumption that CO2 compensation is not a scam and actually has an effect – meaning that the entire additional CO2 emission is already compensated at the very beginning over the building’s lifetime for 800 euros. What is money supposed to achieve? The CO2 has already been released in the first place.
K
Konsument417 Nov 2024 23:51@kbt09 No, sorry, I really can’t accept that.
I am asking here, after all!? If anyone can provide a reasonably credible source showing that a heat pump doesn’t cost around 20,000 euros more than a gas heating system upfront, I will check it and that incorrect assumption in my calculation would be resolved.
I consider every sensible answer and my calculation is not “strange.” It is very transparent and can be understood by anyone. This is not about justification, but about showing that, from an objective point of view (a calculation anyone can follow), a gas heating system in a new build is not as controversial as some make it out to be.
I am asking here, after all!? If anyone can provide a reasonably credible source showing that a heat pump doesn’t cost around 20,000 euros more than a gas heating system upfront, I will check it and that incorrect assumption in my calculation would be resolved.
I consider every sensible answer and my calculation is not “strange.” It is very transparent and can be understood by anyone. This is not about justification, but about showing that, from an objective point of view (a calculation anyone can follow), a gas heating system in a new build is not as controversial as some make it out to be.
The prices for the "hardware" have already been mentioned by @RotorMotor in post 21.
And what you still don’t understand is that offsetting CO2 with money does not eliminate CO2. Your example calculates a 1.4 t per year CO2 advantage for the heat pump ... but this assumes that the electricity also comes from fossil energy sources. The higher the share of renewable energy (RE) in the electricity mix becomes—currently, we are already above 50% on average this year—the better the CO2 balance for the heat pump. Photovoltaic systems should actually be standard in single-family homes nowadays.
For gas, however, it is definitely always 3.5 t CO2 per year. So we are definitely talking about 70 t over 20 years.
And what you still don’t understand is that offsetting CO2 with money does not eliminate CO2. Your example calculates a 1.4 t per year CO2 advantage for the heat pump ... but this assumes that the electricity also comes from fossil energy sources. The higher the share of renewable energy (RE) in the electricity mix becomes—currently, we are already above 50% on average this year—the better the CO2 balance for the heat pump. Photovoltaic systems should actually be standard in single-family homes nowadays.
For gas, however, it is definitely always 3.5 t CO2 per year. So we are definitely talking about 70 t over 20 years.
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