ᐅ CO2 Footprint of Gas Heating vs. Heat Pumps in New Construction
Created on: 17 Nov 2024 16:30
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Konsument4
Recently, there was a discussion among acquaintances about the idea of installing a gas heating system in a new single-family house in 2025 (according to my source/Statista, about 10% still did this in 2023). I researched this topic somewhat (including with the help of ChatGPT, o1-preview) and came across results that seem somewhat out of step with the current general attitude.
- In a 300 sqm (3,230 sq ft) KfW-55 house (minimum standard for 2024, energy efficiency class A with 40 kWh/m2/year), the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system compared to a heat pump amount to about 1.6 tons of CO2 per year. (Calculation: Gas: 300 m2 × 40 kWh/m2/year = 12,000 kWh/year; 12,000 kWh × 0.202 kg CO2/kWh = 2,424 kg CO2/year; Heat pump - annual performance factor 4.5, German electricity mix 300 g CO2/kWh: 12,000 kWh ÷ 4.5 = 3,429 kWh/year; 3,429 kWh × 0.3 kg CO2/kWh = 1,028.7 kg CO2/year => 2,424 kg CO2/year − 1,028.7 kg CO2/year = 1,395.3 kg CO2/year)
- Compensating 1.6 tons of CO2 costs about 40 euros on atmosfair. Two tons cost 50 euros.
- In 2024, a heat pump costs roughly 35,000 euros, while a gas heating system costs around 15,000 euros. (There is no direct subsidy for heat pumps in new builds.)
That means, if I compensate the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system over 20 years, it costs me about 800 euros. If I pay 1,000 euros, I have still done something positive for the environment overall. On the other hand, there is an upfront cost difference of about 20,000 euros for the heat pump. Spending 20,000 euros for an outcome I can achieve with 1,000 euros seems disproportionate to me.
Currently, the price per ton of CO2 is about 30 euros; even if this price rises to 400 euros by 2045 (allegedly a worst-case scenario), I would still come out cheaper with gas (1.6 tons × 400 euros/ton = 640 euros per year in 2045, and likely significantly less before that).
Of course, my calculation is based on various average values, but unless I am seriously wrong in at least one area, the result seems quite clear: If I install a gas heating system in a new single-family home and at least compensate for the CO2 emissions, it appears I come out cheaper and could still do something good for the environment with the savings.
Am I missing something? What else should be considered? Does the calculation contain a major incorrect assumption or wrong average value?
PS: I have seen the thread about gas heating systems 23/24, but in my opinion, the topic of the CO2 footprint was not discussed there, and towards the end, the thread went off-topic anyway.
- In a 300 sqm (3,230 sq ft) KfW-55 house (minimum standard for 2024, energy efficiency class A with 40 kWh/m2/year), the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system compared to a heat pump amount to about 1.6 tons of CO2 per year. (Calculation: Gas: 300 m2 × 40 kWh/m2/year = 12,000 kWh/year; 12,000 kWh × 0.202 kg CO2/kWh = 2,424 kg CO2/year; Heat pump - annual performance factor 4.5, German electricity mix 300 g CO2/kWh: 12,000 kWh ÷ 4.5 = 3,429 kWh/year; 3,429 kWh × 0.3 kg CO2/kWh = 1,028.7 kg CO2/year => 2,424 kg CO2/year − 1,028.7 kg CO2/year = 1,395.3 kg CO2/year)
- Compensating 1.6 tons of CO2 costs about 40 euros on atmosfair. Two tons cost 50 euros.
- In 2024, a heat pump costs roughly 35,000 euros, while a gas heating system costs around 15,000 euros. (There is no direct subsidy for heat pumps in new builds.)
That means, if I compensate the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system over 20 years, it costs me about 800 euros. If I pay 1,000 euros, I have still done something positive for the environment overall. On the other hand, there is an upfront cost difference of about 20,000 euros for the heat pump. Spending 20,000 euros for an outcome I can achieve with 1,000 euros seems disproportionate to me.
Currently, the price per ton of CO2 is about 30 euros; even if this price rises to 400 euros by 2045 (allegedly a worst-case scenario), I would still come out cheaper with gas (1.6 tons × 400 euros/ton = 640 euros per year in 2045, and likely significantly less before that).
Of course, my calculation is based on various average values, but unless I am seriously wrong in at least one area, the result seems quite clear: If I install a gas heating system in a new single-family home and at least compensate for the CO2 emissions, it appears I come out cheaper and could still do something good for the environment with the savings.
Am I missing something? What else should be considered? Does the calculation contain a major incorrect assumption or wrong average value?
PS: I have seen the thread about gas heating systems 23/24, but in my opinion, the topic of the CO2 footprint was not discussed there, and towards the end, the thread went off-topic anyway.
K
Konsument418 Nov 2024 11:16@kbt09 sorry, that’s too aggressive for me, I won’t respond to that anymore; happy to continue in a reasonable tone.
Otherwise, thanks for the contributions, here’s what I conclude for myself...
* Photovoltaic systems still need to be considered individually
* Possibly a tank instead of a direct connection
* The cost of gas heating versus heat pumps seems surprisingly controversial (my sources are from 2024, but I’m unfortunately not allowed to share links). However, I would be glad if my numbers were incorrect.
* CO2 compensation is compared by some to indulgence trading, which obviously makes that comparison invalid; I consider that a bold claim, but luckily I don’t have to defend the concept here
... so I’ll leave it at that and wish Buchsbaum lots of fun with the thread.
Otherwise, thanks for the contributions, here’s what I conclude for myself...
* Photovoltaic systems still need to be considered individually
* Possibly a tank instead of a direct connection
* The cost of gas heating versus heat pumps seems surprisingly controversial (my sources are from 2024, but I’m unfortunately not allowed to share links). However, I would be glad if my numbers were incorrect.
* CO2 compensation is compared by some to indulgence trading, which obviously makes that comparison invalid; I consider that a bold claim, but luckily I don’t have to defend the concept here
... so I’ll leave it at that and wish Buchsbaum lots of fun with the thread.
C
chand198618 Nov 2024 11:36Konsument4 schrieb:
It seems surprisingly controversial what the initial costs are for gas heating versus heat pumps Well, here an actual paid invoice from a real installation was posted...R
RotorMotor18 Nov 2024 11:40Konsument4 schrieb:
* Photovoltaics still need to be considered individually They don’t. You didn’t include them in your calculation and neither did I. It should be undisputed that photovoltaics significantly increase the advantage of air-to-water heat pumps compared to gas.
Konsument4 schrieb:
* possibly a tank instead of a connection Spending an additional 10,000€ on a tank cannot be advantageous. That was always a last-resort solution when heat pumps were not yet available, for areas without gas supply.
Konsument4 schrieb:
* It seems surprisingly controversial what heating with gas and heat pumps cost initially (my sources are from 2024, but unfortunately I can’t post a link). However, I would be happy if my numbers were wrong. I have prepared a very detailed calculation. Where do the figures in your video differ? You could also give a tip on how to find the video.
And we have already had concrete calculations posted here. These were actual costs, which were significantly below your numbers.
Konsument4 schrieb:
* Some compare CO2 compensation to indulgences, so of course the comparison doesn’t make sense; I consider this a bold statement, but luckily I don’t have to defend the concept here I have also specifically named the costs for genuine CO2 removal.
The company you mentioned primarily runs development projects in poor regions, which may be meaningful, but I find it very questionable whether this really benefits the environment.
Konsument4 schrieb:
... and I’ll let it be I find it very disappointing that you no longer address my calculations. So you basically stick to your original position and end the discussion.
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Buchsbaum06618 Nov 2024 13:10Aloha_Lars schrieb:
PS: I don’t have a chimney!That’s unfortunate.
I have something like this in my kitchen. Never going without one again! But if you don’t have a chimney, it gets complicated. Especially during the Christmas season, a kitchen stove is both a real saver because it includes an oven and incredibly cozy. But I guess you all have a nice heat pump for that.
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