ᐅ CO2 Footprint of Gas Heating vs. Heat Pumps in New Construction
Created on: 17 Nov 2024 16:30
K
Konsument4
Recently, there was a discussion among acquaintances about the idea of installing a gas heating system in a new single-family house in 2025 (according to my source/Statista, about 10% still did this in 2023). I researched this topic somewhat (including with the help of ChatGPT, o1-preview) and came across results that seem somewhat out of step with the current general attitude.
- In a 300 sqm (3,230 sq ft) KfW-55 house (minimum standard for 2024, energy efficiency class A with 40 kWh/m2/year), the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system compared to a heat pump amount to about 1.6 tons of CO2 per year. (Calculation: Gas: 300 m2 × 40 kWh/m2/year = 12,000 kWh/year; 12,000 kWh × 0.202 kg CO2/kWh = 2,424 kg CO2/year; Heat pump - annual performance factor 4.5, German electricity mix 300 g CO2/kWh: 12,000 kWh ÷ 4.5 = 3,429 kWh/year; 3,429 kWh × 0.3 kg CO2/kWh = 1,028.7 kg CO2/year => 2,424 kg CO2/year − 1,028.7 kg CO2/year = 1,395.3 kg CO2/year)
- Compensating 1.6 tons of CO2 costs about 40 euros on atmosfair. Two tons cost 50 euros.
- In 2024, a heat pump costs roughly 35,000 euros, while a gas heating system costs around 15,000 euros. (There is no direct subsidy for heat pumps in new builds.)
That means, if I compensate the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system over 20 years, it costs me about 800 euros. If I pay 1,000 euros, I have still done something positive for the environment overall. On the other hand, there is an upfront cost difference of about 20,000 euros for the heat pump. Spending 20,000 euros for an outcome I can achieve with 1,000 euros seems disproportionate to me.
Currently, the price per ton of CO2 is about 30 euros; even if this price rises to 400 euros by 2045 (allegedly a worst-case scenario), I would still come out cheaper with gas (1.6 tons × 400 euros/ton = 640 euros per year in 2045, and likely significantly less before that).
Of course, my calculation is based on various average values, but unless I am seriously wrong in at least one area, the result seems quite clear: If I install a gas heating system in a new single-family home and at least compensate for the CO2 emissions, it appears I come out cheaper and could still do something good for the environment with the savings.
Am I missing something? What else should be considered? Does the calculation contain a major incorrect assumption or wrong average value?
PS: I have seen the thread about gas heating systems 23/24, but in my opinion, the topic of the CO2 footprint was not discussed there, and towards the end, the thread went off-topic anyway.
- In a 300 sqm (3,230 sq ft) KfW-55 house (minimum standard for 2024, energy efficiency class A with 40 kWh/m2/year), the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system compared to a heat pump amount to about 1.6 tons of CO2 per year. (Calculation: Gas: 300 m2 × 40 kWh/m2/year = 12,000 kWh/year; 12,000 kWh × 0.202 kg CO2/kWh = 2,424 kg CO2/year; Heat pump - annual performance factor 4.5, German electricity mix 300 g CO2/kWh: 12,000 kWh ÷ 4.5 = 3,429 kWh/year; 3,429 kWh × 0.3 kg CO2/kWh = 1,028.7 kg CO2/year => 2,424 kg CO2/year − 1,028.7 kg CO2/year = 1,395.3 kg CO2/year)
- Compensating 1.6 tons of CO2 costs about 40 euros on atmosfair. Two tons cost 50 euros.
- In 2024, a heat pump costs roughly 35,000 euros, while a gas heating system costs around 15,000 euros. (There is no direct subsidy for heat pumps in new builds.)
That means, if I compensate the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system over 20 years, it costs me about 800 euros. If I pay 1,000 euros, I have still done something positive for the environment overall. On the other hand, there is an upfront cost difference of about 20,000 euros for the heat pump. Spending 20,000 euros for an outcome I can achieve with 1,000 euros seems disproportionate to me.
Currently, the price per ton of CO2 is about 30 euros; even if this price rises to 400 euros by 2045 (allegedly a worst-case scenario), I would still come out cheaper with gas (1.6 tons × 400 euros/ton = 640 euros per year in 2045, and likely significantly less before that).
Of course, my calculation is based on various average values, but unless I am seriously wrong in at least one area, the result seems quite clear: If I install a gas heating system in a new single-family home and at least compensate for the CO2 emissions, it appears I come out cheaper and could still do something good for the environment with the savings.
Am I missing something? What else should be considered? Does the calculation contain a major incorrect assumption or wrong average value?
PS: I have seen the thread about gas heating systems 23/24, but in my opinion, the topic of the CO2 footprint was not discussed there, and towards the end, the thread went off-topic anyway.
C
chand198617 Nov 2024 20:24kbt09 schrieb:
First, I would review the quotes ... regarding the cost aspect.
And then ... we simply can no longer afford to keep releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. This should be avoided wherever possible, because I’ll quote: Many people also don’t understand this when it comes to the net-zero principle. It’s actually about achieving zero emissions and generating a decrease in global levels—not just maintaining stable global levels.
Konsument4 schrieb:
If I offset the additional CO2 emissions from a gas heating system over 20 years, it costs me about 800 euros. You are projecting today's price over 20 years.
For example, in 10 years you might have to pay 800 euros annually, and in 20 years 2000 euros annually—just as an example to question your optimistic calculation.
R
RotorMotor17 Nov 2024 21:16Konsument4 schrieb:
- In a 300 m² (3,230 sq ft) KfW-55 house (minimum standard 2024, energy efficiency class A with 40 kWh/m²/year), the additional CO2 emissions of a gas heating system compared to a heat pump amount to about 1.6 tons of CO2 per year. (Calculation: Gas: 300 m² × 40 kWh/m²/year = 12,000 kWh/year; 12,000 kWh × 0.202 kg CO2/kWh = 2,424 kg CO2/year; Heat pump – seasonal performance factor 4.5, German electricity mix 300 g CO2/kWh: 12,000 kWh / 4.5 = 3,429 kWh/year; 3,429 kWh × 0.3 kg CO2/kWh = 1,028.7 kg CO2/year => 2,424 kg CO2/year – 1,028.7 kg CO2/year = 1,395.3 kg CO2/year) This is roughly accurate at present. Minor inaccuracies might include the electricity consumption of the gas heater's pumps, etc., which are not accounted for. Also, the electricity mix in Germany is expected to improve in the future and can be significantly enhanced locally with on-site photovoltaics.
Konsument4 schrieb:
- Offsetting 1.6 tons of CO2 costs about 40 euros on atmosfair. 2 tons cost 50 euros. Unfortunately, these are only carbon offsets that don’t actually remove CO2. Real compensation can be achieved through Direct Air Capture (DAC). However, it is not yet available at large scale, and currently costs around 1000 €/ton! It is expected to become cheaper, potentially dropping to about 200 €/ton. But even then, genuine compensation would still cost at least 300 €/year.
Konsument4 schrieb:
- A heat pump costs around 35,000 euros in 2024, a gas heating system around 15,000 euros. (No direct subsidy for heat pumps in new builds). This is where things get really odd. A current monoblock heat pump from a German manufacturer costs about 5,000 €. A good Korean model might be around 3,000 €, which is about the same cost as a gas heater. And now it is claimed that connecting a gas system—with all its gas line, exhaust system, etc.—is cheaper than simply placing a monoblock outside and connecting water and electricity?
If you use these “sky-high” prices, no meaningful comparison is possible.
I am quite certain that a heat pump can be installed in a new build at the same price as a gas heating system. Let’s just assume that the base installation costs the same as a gas connection to the house, so the net difference is close to zero.
So here is my calculation:
Initial price difference for purchase: 0 €
Maintenance/cleaning for gas heating: 200 €/year
Chimney sweep: 50 €/year
Cost of gas meter: 20 €/year
Higher cost of gas compared to electricity: 12,000 kWh × (0.12 €/kWh (gas) – 0.41 €/kWh / 4.5 seasonal performance factor (electricity)) = 346 €/year
So, by now the gas heating is already 616 € per year more expensive.
And now add 1,400 € per year for CO2 storage. So the additional costs for a gas heating system total over 2,000 € per year.
Oh, and this calculation doesn’t even include photovoltaics, which would further reduce the extra gas costs and CO2 compensation, thereby making the heat pump’s advantage even greater. But let’s stick to heating systems here.
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Buchsbaum06617 Nov 2024 21:57CO² Footprint!
When I read this nonsense, I just tune out. It’s exactly my sense of humor to build a huge house of 300 m² (3,230 sq ft) and then worry about your individual CO² footprint. Why not also discuss the three frequent long-distance flights or the three gasoline cars parked in front of the house? And better yet, driving every meter by car.
You could start tomorrow. No meat, no dairy products, no more using cars, no traveling, small houses. A ceiling height of 2.05 m (6 ft 9 in) is more than enough. Anything else is luxury.
I already suspected it here. Decarbonization means the deindustrialization of Germany, and we’re well on our way. A reason to celebrate in our left-green society.
And whether a few hundred thousand heat pumps will save the global climate? I don’t know.
A spokesperson from Foofwatch recently demanded on the radio that Germany should reduce its dairy cow population by half due to the environmentally harmful emissions of the cattle. Sure, that’s one approach.
And please, no more cheese either. Its CO² footprint is terrible too. After most smaller dairies were shut down, only a few large ones remain. Milk is transported hundreds of kilometers to these facilities where cheese is produced. From there, the cheese is shipped to the Baltics or Russia, where it is cut and packaged. Then it’s sent back to Germany and distributed to discount store warehouses.
Why, during the peak apple season in early September, Edeka still sells apples from New Zealand, I don’t understand. Or cherries from Peru in February.
To me, these are all token discussions.
When I read this nonsense, I just tune out. It’s exactly my sense of humor to build a huge house of 300 m² (3,230 sq ft) and then worry about your individual CO² footprint. Why not also discuss the three frequent long-distance flights or the three gasoline cars parked in front of the house? And better yet, driving every meter by car.
You could start tomorrow. No meat, no dairy products, no more using cars, no traveling, small houses. A ceiling height of 2.05 m (6 ft 9 in) is more than enough. Anything else is luxury.
I already suspected it here. Decarbonization means the deindustrialization of Germany, and we’re well on our way. A reason to celebrate in our left-green society.
And whether a few hundred thousand heat pumps will save the global climate? I don’t know.
A spokesperson from Foofwatch recently demanded on the radio that Germany should reduce its dairy cow population by half due to the environmentally harmful emissions of the cattle. Sure, that’s one approach.
And please, no more cheese either. Its CO² footprint is terrible too. After most smaller dairies were shut down, only a few large ones remain. Milk is transported hundreds of kilometers to these facilities where cheese is produced. From there, the cheese is shipped to the Baltics or Russia, where it is cut and packaged. Then it’s sent back to Germany and distributed to discount store warehouses.
Why, during the peak apple season in early September, Edeka still sells apples from New Zealand, I don’t understand. Or cherries from Peru in February.
To me, these are all token discussions.
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nordanney17 Nov 2024 22:42Buchsbaum066 schrieb:
Why not also discuss the three flights taken per year or the three combustion engine cars parked in front of the house? And ideally driving every meter by car. Let's do that. But in other forums.
This is a building forum; here we discuss construction topics.
Buchsbaum066 schrieb:
I had already suspected it here. Decarbonization means deindustrialization of Germany, and we are well on that path. A cause for celebration in our left-green society.
And whether a few hundred thousand heat pumps will save the global climate? I don’t know. Here it is again. Bitterness.
Buchsbaum066 schrieb:
A spokesperson from Foodwatch recently demanded on the radio to reduce the number of dairy cows in Germany by half because of the harmful emissions from cattle. Sure, that’s an option. P.S. In New Zealand, a methane tax was discussed, and in Ireland, the culling of tens of thousands of cattle was debated.
Other countries are already much further ahead than we are in Germany.
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Konsument417 Nov 2024 23:17Nida35a schrieb:
You are projecting the current price over 20 years,
You might have to pay 800€ annually in 10 years and 2000€ in 20 years,
just as an example of your optimistic calculation I believe there is actually a misunderstanding here; in my opinion, this is not an error in the calculation nor a projection over 20 years. The 800 euros would be the amount to pay today for the total additional CO2 emissions from the gas heating over its 20-year lifespan, meaning I am already offsetting my entire CO2 footprint upfront. Okay, if someone argues that CO2 today is less harmful than in 20 years, well.
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