ᐅ Is the construction boom still ongoing?

My impression is that uncertainty is at an all-time high, but even people who are very worried about rising costs do not question their belief that a home must be at least fifty percent larger than what they could afford as renters. Owners of inherited plots are still waiting to see whether property tax surcharges on infill lots will be symbolic or will actually create real pressure to sell. The shortage of reasonably priced land for moderate buyers within a tolerable commuting distance appears to remain stable in terms of the supply-demand ratio. In municipalities with especially high demand exceeding available land, the oversubscription seems to be decreasing, and the tolerance for construction obligations is probably becoming more flexible. Developers specializing in brownfield sites are apparently going into hibernation: ongoing projects are being continued with the same persistence, but no new projects are being initiated. Near my regular routes, there is a development site (see https://www.hausbau-forum.de/threads/bauvorhaben-neuwied-block-Traumhaus-ag-heinrich-hildmann.38065/) with mixed development (mid-tier semi-detached houses by the developer, the rest marketed individually by the previous owner). These semi-detached houses are developing slowly, typical for the industry, while the individual projects (mostly detached single-family homes, a few private semi-detached) are progressing actively, and the multi-family buildings have not progressed beyond laying out the foundations. In several nearby new neighborhoods, cranes are present in developed sections, but the development of the next sections is dormant (despite a well-attended community meeting three years ago). My overall impression is that specific, concrete construction plans are being pushed forward, but alongside this, there is a broad "waiting cartel."

SaniererNRW123 schrieb:

tightly budgeted projects (developer multi-family housing) are sometimes reversed even after units have been sold.

I don’t quite follow that, please feel free to explain in more detail. At what percentage of sold units does the project usually switch between moving forward and reversing? I assume this applies only to projects that have not yet reached site preparation or excavation. Also, are the affected parties usually “redirected” then?

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11ant schrieb:

I’m not quite following you on that, please feel free to explain further. At what percentage of units sold does the project typically shift into forward or reverse gear? I assume this applies mostly to projects that are still at the pre-grading or excavation stage. And: are those affected usually “rerouted” in some way?

This has nothing to do with the number of units already sold. What matters is that construction has not yet started and the developer can pull the emergency brake. The end buyers receive compensation, as the developer can better absorb this than a project with a negative return.
Since construction usually only starts once at least 20% of units are pre-sold (preferably 30-40%, reflecting the preferences of financing banks), there are already some units sold, but the total compensation to be paid probably remains limited overall.

I spoke with an LBS advisor over the weekend. There is still a lot of work because financing is still being offered with interest rates partly over 4%. Among colleagues, mostly the young ones under 30 years old, the enthusiasm has gone. Even with net incomes around 3000-3500 euros net per person, no one dares to buy an apartment anymore. It won’t get better, as many will now look for rental apartments.

That is exactly the issue. We, in our own homes, can consider ourselves fortunate, but many who now have to rent an apartment at continuously rising prices can hardly build any equity either. I believe that the number of people who can afford a home will decrease in the coming years, and owning a single-family house will become a privilege of the upper middle class.

32 building plots available in our new housing development. Located 15 kilometers (9 miles) from Regensburg. Infrastructure development is currently in progress. Over 100 interested parties. Allocation based on strict criteria and a points system.

schubert79 schrieb:

There are 32 building plots in our new development area, located 15 kilometers (9 miles) from Regensburg. The site infrastructure is currently being developed. There are over 100 interested buyers. Allocation is based on strict criteria and a points system.

Strict criteria and a points system tend to reduce the oversubscription rate. Assuming the "over 100" means 128, that would result in an oversubscription ratio of 4:1. We have experienced ratios of 25:1 or higher several times, and for free offers without local resident or other point advantages, even 40:1. The issue with municipal offerings is often that the municipality typically controls only about a quarter of the lots, which concentrates the waiting lists on those plots.

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