ᐅ Future Building Cost Trends Over the Next 3-5 Years

Created on: 1 Aug 2019 13:51
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Michlhausbauaa
Hello,

I understand that this is purely speculative.

How do you assess the situation for the coming years? Will there be an economic crisis like in 2008/2009, followed by a decrease in construction costs and many houses (including “newer” ones) being sold?

I’m looking forward to your thoughts.

Best regards,
Michael
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nix zu schwör
2 Aug 2019 10:20
As we continue to live in a low-interest-rate environment, construction costs for new buildings are not expected to change significantly. Jobs will, if anything, mainly be influenced by digitalization, which is unlikely to have a major impact on the construction sector. The quality will not improve either. BIM in private residential construction does not make a big difference, except for increasing ancillary construction costs. Additionally, building services engineering (HVAC, electrical, plumbing) is currently a major cost driver and significantly shortens the depreciation periods and useful life of buildings.

In new construction, many decisions are made by the client regarding the fittings and finishes. Just looking at bathrooms alone shows their influence. Today, even single-family homes often have two to three bathrooms.

Operating and renovation costs for existing buildings will change significantly, as the energy transition will become considerably more expensive, especially if the targets remain fixed.

What stands out to me is that banks are becoming less cooperative. Homeowners take increasingly longer to secure financing. The KfW programs are almost a “no-go” now.

Real estate has basically turned into stocks and can destroy your money just as easily.
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gmt94
2 Aug 2019 10:23
It’s similar for me—I have a one-way commute of 94 km (58 miles) and it takes me about one hour.

I drive from Saxony-Anhalt to Lower Saxony. I’ve often thought about looking for something closer, but I would easily earn 20,000 less per year here. Then there’s a 40-hour workweek without overtime pay, meaning I’d effectively be working extra hours for free during that commute.

I’d rather drive an hour each way and have a 38-hour workweek, with overtime either compensated with time off or pay, a collective agreement, works council, company pension scheme, remote work options, and much more.

Why do I put up with this? I grew up here and feel completely at home, plus the land was almost given to me.

I also know people who have to commute from the Wolfsburg area to the VW plant during rush hour, taking 40 minutes for just 20 km (12 miles). :-(
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haydee
2 Aug 2019 10:32
HilfeHilfe schrieb:

I commute by train, which is less stressful and cheaper.

In my opinion, I don’t even lose time because I either “doze off,” chat online, or read.

But yes, not everyone has good public transport connections.

Here we call it the motorway (highway).
It’s quite fast, but not exactly relaxing.
So in that sense, we are already lucky.
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HilfeHilfe
2 Aug 2019 11:11
Snowy36 schrieb:

Yes, and you could see from your other posts how comfortable and stress-free it is.....

When the train runs, everything is fine, but how often you have to wait, can’t get a seat, and then miss the bus you need afterwards... it’s annoying.

I don’t want to deny that. I took it exactly once in July, and that was on the hottest day. Meanwhile, my wife was driving on the A5 for a while. She complained nearly every day about stress, traffic jams, and so on.
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Scout
2 Aug 2019 11:14
guckuck2 schrieb:

"Several thousand" is nothing compared to the size of the city.
Not if that corresponds to a vacancy rate of 1 or 2%... The crude oil price can also skyrocket quickly during times of tight supply if 2 or 3% of production suddenly disappears for political reasons...
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Steffen80
2 Aug 2019 12:03
I have to go up the stairs to work... during rush hour, it sometimes takes 10 seconds instead of 5... really annoying..