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Michlhausbauaa1 Aug 2019 13:51Hello,
I understand that this is purely speculative.
How do you assess the situation for the coming years? Will there be an economic crisis like in 2008/2009, followed by a decrease in construction costs and many houses (including “newer” ones) being sold?
I’m looking forward to your thoughts.
Best regards,
Michael
I understand that this is purely speculative.
How do you assess the situation for the coming years? Will there be an economic crisis like in 2008/2009, followed by a decrease in construction costs and many houses (including “newer” ones) being sold?
I’m looking forward to your thoughts.
Best regards,
Michael
H
HilfeHilfe1 Aug 2019 13:51Michlhausbauaa schrieb:
Hello,
I understand that this is purely speculative.
How do you see the situation developing over the next 3-5 years? Will there be an economic crisis similar to 2008/2009 and, as a result, will construction costs decrease or will many houses be sold?
I’m curious to hear your thoughts.
Best regards
Michael no!
It depends. I do not rule out a crisis. Therefore, I believe there will be short-time work and/or higher unemployment. Many will no longer be able to service their loans. This will lead to a drop in property prices in rural areas.
In cities, real estate will only continue to become more expensive.
In cities, real estate will only continue to become more expensive.
No
until the craftsmen have to start looking for work again, orders have to drop significantly
even in rural areas, prices will not fall drastically. I know several people who, despite reduced working hours, did not have less money in their wallets. Commuting costs, canteen expenses, and the like are eliminated.
In the city, at most, the price increase will be reduced
until the craftsmen have to start looking for work again, orders have to drop significantly
even in rural areas, prices will not fall drastically. I know several people who, despite reduced working hours, did not have less money in their wallets. Commuting costs, canteen expenses, and the like are eliminated.
In the city, at most, the price increase will be reduced
Current assessment from the banks:
Next 2-3 years = Prices will continue to rise rapidly!
(Of course, this applies to urban areas and their surroundings. In rural areas, where there is little to no activity, the development should be the same as before = stable/falling/slightly increasing prices!)
After 3 years = A gradual easing is expected, BUT prices will continue to rise, just not as sharply as in recent years!
Why is that?
Current demand for new housing units: 380,000 per year
Current permits issued: 380,000 per year
Completions: approx. 350,000 per year (meaning more construction is desired, but skilled workers are lacking!) So, we are short by 30,000 units per year!!!
That is why prices for tradespeople increase by 3-5% annually, because they can simply demand it (demand higher than supply!)
And that is also why prices for existing properties are rising.
From 2022 onward, this should balance out, meaning manpower can meet the demand!
Prices will only stabilize or even decline once construction exceeds demand... but this is not expected in the next 5 years.
Next 2-3 years = Prices will continue to rise rapidly!
(Of course, this applies to urban areas and their surroundings. In rural areas, where there is little to no activity, the development should be the same as before = stable/falling/slightly increasing prices!)
After 3 years = A gradual easing is expected, BUT prices will continue to rise, just not as sharply as in recent years!
Why is that?
Current demand for new housing units: 380,000 per year
Current permits issued: 380,000 per year
Completions: approx. 350,000 per year (meaning more construction is desired, but skilled workers are lacking!) So, we are short by 30,000 units per year!!!
That is why prices for tradespeople increase by 3-5% annually, because they can simply demand it (demand higher than supply!)
And that is also why prices for existing properties are rising.
From 2022 onward, this should balance out, meaning manpower can meet the demand!
Prices will only stabilize or even decline once construction exceeds demand... but this is not expected in the next 5 years.