ᐅ There is simultaneously too much construction happening in some areas and too little in others.

A very interesting article:
Although a lot of new housing is being built in Germany, it is concentrated in the wrong locations. According to a construction demand analysis by the Cologne Institute for the German Economy (IW), too many new apartments and single-family homes were built in rural districts between 2011 and 2015. This has increased vacancy rates in rural areas while worsening the housing shortage in cities, the IW reported on Monday.

In the seven largest German cities, only 32 percent of the needed apartments were constructed during the same period, according to IW. This means that these cities alone have a shortfall of 60,000 apartments. The shortage of small apartments is particularly severe, the study finds.

The authors also expect the housing shortage in cities to worsen further in 2016, as the number of completed residential buildings last year "only increased moderately." Even if conditions change—such as “interest rates rising slightly again and urban migration slowing down”—housing in cities will remain tight, according to IW. Therefore, more apartments will continue to be needed in cities than are being built.

The situation outside urban centers is quite different, the study says. In many rural districts, significantly too much housing was built between 2011 and 2015. For example, in the district of Emsland in Lower Saxony, more than 1,060 apartments were built “beyond what was required based on demographic trends and vacancies.”

According to IW, similar trends apply in the Steinfurth district in North Rhine-Westphalia and the Vorpommern-Greifswald district. Overall, 20 percent more apartments were built in rural districts than needed. When it comes to single-family homes, the study finds the number built is even “more than double what is necessary.”

The authors attribute this to low interest rates as well as the availability of land. Financing property became cheaper, making purchases more attractive—even though construction costs “have steadily increased.” At the same time, “new builds are favored over existing homes,” which, given the overall declining rural population, leads to new vacancies.

According to IW, this results in village centers increasingly becoming deserted, while municipal infrastructure costs rise due to sprawl. To prevent further vacancies, the institute recommends rethinking municipal policies. Despite competition between communities, mayors should avoid designating new building zones and link new construction to reducing vacancies “to make existing properties more appealing.”

At the same time, communities with shrinking populations should promote inner development and make their centers more attractive. Support from federal and state governments is also needed here, the IW explained.

Overall, the construction of single- and two-family homes is currently declining. The Federal Statistical Office reported on Monday that permits for single-family homes dropped by 16 percent from January to April compared to the same period last year, while permits for two-family homes fell by 6.5 percent. In contrast, permits for multi-family buildings increased by 2.5 percent to a total of 51,100—the highest level for the first four months of a year in 19 years.

My conclusion: If this is true, there will soon be affordable properties for sale in some rural areas. But apartments in cities will remain expensive.