ᐅ Photovoltaic System: Costs and Savings Potential – Experiences?

I believe that as long as there is little clarity about what exactly is going on, everything remains speculation. Some time ago, I had a conversation with an energy consultant from consumer protection. He complained that the politicians come across with zero information.

Zaba12 schrieb:

If the subsidy disappears due to the removal, module sales will collapse and prices will drop.

Prices will certainly continue to fall; that is what everyone assumes. The idea that the German residential market would have any significant impact on this is a bold claim.
Private installations will become smaller as subsidies expire. The market for businesses with flat roofs and high self-consumption is currently picking up again. The majority of modules are sold for systems with capacities measured in megawatts anyway. That is what they are designed and built for.

Zaba12 schrieb:

If you want to know whether you can power your air-to-water heat pump with photovoltaics, I can give you a clear no. On cloudy days (when it’s gray), my 8.76 kWp (kilowatt peak) system produces a meager 250 watts. That’s not even enough to run the refrigerator.

I would estimate that over the year, about 15–30% of the heat pump’s electricity can come from photovoltaic power. In winter, output is often low, but not always. Running the heat pump during the day is a good way to ensure that little or no electricity is fed back into the grid on weak solar days. From spring to autumn, there is almost always enough power to produce hot water.

My refrigerator uses 20 watts.

With the removal of subsidies, purchasing such a system is no longer financially worthwhile for a private household. Perhaps only for peace of mind. A self-consumption rate of around 70% would be necessary to recoup the investment within a reasonable timeframe (i.e., under 20 years).

Prices are not likely to drop much further. €900–1,000 per kWp (around $970–1,080 per kWp) is the limit for smaller systems. Without subsidies, storage costs are expected to rise as well. At that point, it simply doesn’t make financial sense anymore.

I just had the second solar installer at my house. I asked the same question as I did the first one regarding the loss of the feed-in tariff once the cap is reached. His answer, which matches the first solar installer's, is that it does not affect small systems. Now I am completely confused.

Excerpt from the proposed amendment to the Rhineland-Palatinate state parliament law:

The Renewable Energy Act stipulates that once a nationwide installed photovoltaic capacity of 52 GW (52,000 MW) is reached, the applicable values under § 48 of the Renewable Energy Act for non-tendered solar energy projects will be reduced to zero. This 52 GW cap effectively ends the Renewable Energy Act compensation for solar energy systems up to 750 kWp (750 kW peak) that do not participate in tenders. However, small photovoltaic systems are generally not well suited for other types of direct marketing under the Renewable Energy Act. For operators of photovoltaic systems in the mentioned segment, self-consumption remains the only viable operating model.