ᐅ KfW 70 or is it worth investing in KfW 40 Plus with significantly higher costs?

Caspar2020 schrieb:
The main time savings come from fast-setting screed. That means walkable after 24 hours and quickly ready for covering.

That’s not entirely correct. Most general contractors building around here use this fast-setting screed, including us, and still require 6 months. It’s interesting that they can manage it in 3 months. Currently, the only thing you hear is that all possible general contractors are extending their contractually agreed construction times from 6-7 to 9-10 months.

Viebrockhaus employs many in-house workers, so they don’t need to include buffers in case the window installer can only come three weeks later. When they start, all trades are scheduled at the right time. Then there is a well-coordinated team and practically no chance to disrupt the process with DIY work in between.
Material supply problems are also much less common due to the more limited selection.

Basically, you have to ask yourself when the additional investment will pay off.
If you are already 45 years old, insulation naturally has a lower priority than it would for a 25-year-old builder.

We chose a middle ground and built to KfW 54 standard; the heating costs are around 28-31€ per month.
Pessimistically, you can expect a 5% annual increase in costs. If the situation worsens and more electricity has to be generated from gas (due to nuclear power plant shutdowns, electric mobility), this could become even more severe.

Based on a 5% price increase and 30€ per month:
After 50 years, heating costs would increase by a factor of 11 (330€ per month). By then, the homeowner would be 75 years old and still need to manage financially. Ten years later, at 85 years old, they would be paying 18 times the original amount (530€ per month).

If heating costs today were already 100€ per month instead of 30€, the 85-year-old would have to pay 1,800€ monthly.

This doesn’t have to happen, but it could... we live in Germany! Who would have expected 60 years ago what fuel prices are today? Back then, it was about 25-30 euro cents (cents) equivalent.

Nutshell schrieb:


....We took a middle ground and built to KFW54 standard; heating costs are 28-31€ (about $30-33) as a result....

The standard is new to me :-P

Nutshell schrieb:

Pessimistically, you can expect annual cost increases of around 5%. If the situation worsens and more electricity has to be generated from gas (due to nuclear plant shutdowns, electric mobility), it could get even worse.

Based on a 5% price increase and 30€ (about $33) monthly costs:
After 50 years, heating costs would multiply by a factor of 11 (330€ or about $363 monthly). At that point, the 75-year-old person would be retired and still need to manage financially. Another 10 years later, at age 85, the factor would be 18 (530€ or about $584 monthly).

If heating costs were already 100€ (about $110) today instead of 30€, the 85-year-old would have to pay as much as 1800€ (about $1980) per month.

It doesn’t have to turn out this way, but it could... we live in Germany! Who would have expected fuel prices today 60 years ago? Back then, they were about 25-30 cents (about 25-30 US cents) per liter equivalent.

It might not happen like that... none of us know! But to take your example—30 cents, 5% increase, 60 years—that would roughly be 5.60€. But the liter doesn’t even cost “Super Power Ultra High Efficient” or anything like that.

Maybe technology will develop and we will generate cheaper electricity in the future? Do heat pumps have a COP of 10? (Sorry, I’m not very technically skilled.) I don’t know. But you can factor in all kinds of possibilities in such calculations. Each person has to decide whether they lean more towards the Club of Rome’s outlook or the idea that things aren’t as bad as they’re made out to be.

That’s why questions like this can’t really be answered in general terms.

Nutshell schrieb:
It doesn’t have to happen this way, but it could... after all, we live in Germany! Who would have expected 60 years ago what fuel prices are like today? Back then, it was equivalent to about 25-30 € cents.

Yesterday, there was an interesting report about this on the regional broadcaster BR (it was part of the show “quer” a few weeks ago). The average purchasing power was also much lower back then. In other words, today you can afford significantly more gasoline than in the past. And that’s despite fossil fuels becoming much scarcer.

Nutshell schrieb:
Basically, you have to ask yourself when the additional investment will pay off.

Exactly. And honestly, that also means considering what it means if the capital is effectively tied up. This is often overlooked.

If I had simply invested the extra 30,000 euros in ETFs... oh well...

Nutshell schrieb:
Based on a 5% increase in prices and 30 euros monthly:
Here, after 50 years, I arrive at a factor of 11 for heating costs (330€ monthly). At that point, the 75-year-old is retired and still has to manage financially. Another 10 years later, at 85 years old, they would be paying a factor of 18 (530€ monthly)

Yes, this is the naive thinking here. Looking at this without adjusting for inflation or purchasing power is really just a way to ease one’s conscience.

Also, one must not forget that over these 60 years, various investments will have to be made. Much less for a gas boiler than for these new technological wonders.

You are right, but everyone understood the point I was trying to make! That’s already a good start.