ᐅ Multi-day Power Outage as Currently Experienced in Berlin: Risks for Heating Systems and Water Pipes?
Created on: 6 Jan 2026 10:01
P
Pianist
Good day!
As you probably know from the news, there is currently an extended power outage in the southern part of Berlin, which started on Saturday and is expected to last until Thursday. This makes me wonder: what impact does a multi-day power outage have on building systems when outside temperatures are below freezing?
Let’s assume that a house in an unprepared state would no longer be habitable by usual standards. The fresh water system can be drained, and the local water supplier can be asked to shut off the supply line in the street. This should take care of that aspect. But what about the circulation water in the heating system? It’s unlikely that every radiator or underfloor heating loop can be completely drained reliably.
How long does it take for a well-insulated house, constructed with materials that have good thermal mass, to freeze enough that there is a risk of heating pipes bursting? The consequences would be severe, potentially requiring the removal of the screed…
So, let’s assume minus ten degrees Celsius (14°F) and a week without power. Are there any experience reports from previous events?
Matthias
As you probably know from the news, there is currently an extended power outage in the southern part of Berlin, which started on Saturday and is expected to last until Thursday. This makes me wonder: what impact does a multi-day power outage have on building systems when outside temperatures are below freezing?
Let’s assume that a house in an unprepared state would no longer be habitable by usual standards. The fresh water system can be drained, and the local water supplier can be asked to shut off the supply line in the street. This should take care of that aspect. But what about the circulation water in the heating system? It’s unlikely that every radiator or underfloor heating loop can be completely drained reliably.
How long does it take for a well-insulated house, constructed with materials that have good thermal mass, to freeze enough that there is a risk of heating pipes bursting? The consequences would be severe, potentially requiring the removal of the screed…
So, let’s assume minus ten degrees Celsius (14°F) and a week without power. Are there any experience reports from previous events?
Matthias
W
wiltshire7 Jan 2026 14:18Pianist schrieb:
But my political assessment is different. Terrorists are extremely well-informed and know how to cause maximum damage with minimal effort. And this problem is likely to increase. It’s good that you use the term “assessment,” because that is exactly what matters when determining the scale of counterterrorism measures. And it is clear that different assessments are possible, since emotions and imagination always play a major role alongside the data.
I arrive at a different assessment. I like to use mathematics for this. The relationship between damage impact and probability of occurrence does not encourage me to invest, even if the frequency of attacks increased tenfold.
From a political perspective regarding our society, I have other concerns.
Papierturm7 Jan 2026 19:48In December, during the screed heating phase, the heating element broke. At that time, outside temperatures were between 1-4°C (34-39°F), cloudy. Since workers were still active, windows and doors were often left open.
- After one day, we didn’t notice any difference.
- After two days, we observed that although it was still warm inside (>25°C (77°F)), it was getting cooler.
- After four days, the temperature was about 15°C (59°F).
- It was only when the replacement heating element arrived (eight days later, annoying) that the interior temperature became just slightly warmer than outside.
However, on one hand, it wasn’t nearly as cold outside, and inside was warmer; on the other hand, windows and doors were frequently open due to the workers.
But this isn’t really the main point. Terrorists aim to cause the greatest possible damage. Why would they target a small suburban neighborhood with detached houses, some semi-detached houses, and small apartment buildings? Real damage happens in large cities—where repairs are also much more complex.
Therefore, I would assess the risk as very negligible.
- After one day, we didn’t notice any difference.
- After two days, we observed that although it was still warm inside (>25°C (77°F)), it was getting cooler.
- After four days, the temperature was about 15°C (59°F).
- It was only when the replacement heating element arrived (eight days later, annoying) that the interior temperature became just slightly warmer than outside.
However, on one hand, it wasn’t nearly as cold outside, and inside was warmer; on the other hand, windows and doors were frequently open due to the workers.
But this isn’t really the main point. Terrorists aim to cause the greatest possible damage. Why would they target a small suburban neighborhood with detached houses, some semi-detached houses, and small apartment buildings? Real damage happens in large cities—where repairs are also much more complex.
Therefore, I would assess the risk as very negligible.
W
wiltshire8 Jan 2026 08:19Papierturm schrieb:
Terrorists want to cause as much damage as possible. In my layman's opinion, strategic terrorism is less about causing damage and more about impact. The impact comes either from maximum fear or from widespread uncertainty caused by questioning what is taken for granted. The idea that "this could happen to me" plays a huge role, and everyone can imagine how disruptive it is when the power goes out.
In my view, the best protection against terrorism is an open, shared culture that is not arbitrary, along with policies that consider participation as a fundamental principle of action both domestically and internationally. This approach drastically reduces the likelihood of attacks and improves quality of life. The many helpers in Berlin set an example: we stick together and manage. I hope to see more of this in everyday life as well.
wiltshire schrieb:
In my layperson’s opinion, strategic terrorism is less about the actual damage and more about the impact. This impact is created either through maximum fear or by widespread uncertainty that arises when what is taken for granted is questioned. The idea that “this could happen to me” plays a huge role, and anyone can imagine how unsettling it is when the power goes out.
In my view, the best protection against terrorism is an open, shared culture that is not arbitrary, and a policy that regards participation as a key element of action both domestically and internationally. This drastically reduces the likelihood of attacks and improves quality of life. The many volunteers in Berlin set an example: we stand together and cope well. We need more of that in everyday life. I fully agree with every sentence here!
However, we must unfortunately assume that there are forces that do not want an open, shared culture of coexistence and participation for all. This is precisely the defining characteristic of extremism, whether from the right, left, Islamist spectrum, or destabilization attempts from Russia. Therefore, we need a dual strategy of prevention aimed at stopping such acts, but also significant support when they do happen. Both on a local level, as we see now in South Berlin, and across Europe as a whole.
Matthias
M
MachsSelbst9 Jan 2026 09:29It’s the same with any attack. People become afraid, but this fear is irrational.
It’s actually much more dangerous today to get into your car during a snowstorm and drive on the highway.
By the way, I find it quite remarkable how quickly such a significant damage to a 110kV (110,000-volt) power line could be repaired. This is encouraging because it shows that in an emergency, it’s possible to respond and fix the issue relatively quickly.
Of course, preppers are feeling confident again right now, no question. But whether I would spend several thousand euros to prepare for a 3 or 4-day power outage... I don’t think so, as the likelihood is simply too low.
It’s actually much more dangerous today to get into your car during a snowstorm and drive on the highway.
By the way, I find it quite remarkable how quickly such a significant damage to a 110kV (110,000-volt) power line could be repaired. This is encouraging because it shows that in an emergency, it’s possible to respond and fix the issue relatively quickly.
Of course, preppers are feeling confident again right now, no question. But whether I would spend several thousand euros to prepare for a 3 or 4-day power outage... I don’t think so, as the likelihood is simply too low.
W
wiltshire10 Jan 2026 11:57MachsSelbst schrieb:
Preppers of course have the upper hand again right now, no question. As an addition, not a contradiction: I don’t feel the need to distance myself from a group of people who take extensive precautions against power outages and other disasters just because I handle things differently myself. This division doesn’t make sense to me.
As with almost all topics:
1. I don’t want to be subjected to any form of proselytizing.
2. I reject the intentional creation and amplification of fear and uncertainty being used to gain political or economic advantage.
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