ᐅ Accept an offer for a 16 kWp photovoltaic system at this time?

I need your opinion on the following offer for a photovoltaic system.

Gable roof with a 23-degree pitch, fully covered on both sides with a total of 40 modules, approximately 16-17 kWp, depending on the modules available at that time.
Southwest orientation, no shading.
No battery storage.
Includes all installation work, scaffolding, connection, and registration: 28,000 net.
House details: Single-family home, 135 sqm (1,452 sq ft), KfW 55 standard, air-to-water heat pump, controlled ventilation system, 3 occupants, aquarium, possible electric car in 2 years. Estimated annual electricity consumption: 8,000 kWh.

That is 1647 €/kWp and therefore expensive. I just received an offer for 1279 €, however for 48.6 kWp.

karl.jonas schrieb:

That is 1647 €/kWp and therefore expensive. I just received an offer for 1279 €, but for 48.6 kWp.

For the current market, the price is not too high; I have seen much higher offers before. In my region (Bavaria), it is currently hard to find anything below 1700–1800 € per kWp (net) if you can get an offer at all. Your offer is good, but 48 kWp is a completely different scale.
In my situation, I would accept the offer if the components are suitable and I cannot find a better option.

What does PVGIS say to expect?

Calculate roughly, for example:

17 kW × 1000 kWh/year (according to PVGIS) × 0.075 (feed-in tariff estimate) × 20 years (calculated service life) =

25,500

That’s what you’d earn with full feed-in, assuming you can achieve the estimated yield under full capacity use. This means you’re slightly in the negative.

You will then offset that effect through self-consumption. With an air-to-water heat pump and an electric car, you will almost certainly end up with a positive balance in the end.

If everything is really included, this is definitely not a bargain, but prices are simply what they are. If you look at offers in other forums, many are currently even significantly more expensive.

Comparing this to an offer that is three times larger doesn’t make sense. Prices also often vary regionally.

Do you have other offers? How do they compare?

Thanks for the previous replies.

face26 schrieb:

What does PVGIS say to expect?

PVGIS says 1016 kWh/year

face26 schrieb:

Do you have any other offers? How do they compare?

I requested quotes from about 25 local and some regional solar installers. Only three provided offers, similar in price.
All others didn’t respond or asked me to inquire again in 2024... Region Southwest Palatinate in Rhineland-Palatinate.

HnghusBY schrieb:

In my situation, I would accept the offer if the components are suitable and I don’t find a better option.

The components seem suitable as far as I can judge. Unfortunately, I don’t see a better option. Only another one would be to wait for a possible price drop, with the risk that it could get even more expensive.

Pitiglianio schrieb:

Contacted about 25 local and some regional solar installers. Only received offers from three, all roughly the same price. All others either didn't respond or advised me to inquire again in 2024... Region Southwest Palatinate in RLP.

Well, you’ve already done quite a bit and have an overview now. If you have a good feeling about one of them and maybe some solid references, why not go with them.

With a heat pump and electric car, you will probably reach around 50% self-consumption. You can then roughly calculate what additional savings that might bring. The variable factor, of course, remains the future electricity price.

But if you consume 4000 kWh/year directly, at an electricity price of 40 cents/kWh, that’s a savings of 32.5 cents per kWh. That means 4000 x 0.325 = 1300 EUR per year saved. Over 20 years, that’s 26,000 EUR.
This is a very simplified calculation and doesn’t take into account additional costs, inverter replacement, etc. But overall, it doesn’t look too bad.

Maybe electricity prices will go down again, maybe you can increase direct consumption, or maybe not...