As the title suggests, what's the situation like for you? Is there still a lot of building going on, or has it slowed down?
Are entire fields being developed, or just scattered plots?
And so on. Please share your observations and experiences. My impression is that the forum has become somewhat quieter.
Are entire fields being developed, or just scattered plots?
And so on. Please share your observations and experiences. My impression is that the forum has become somewhat quieter.
i_b_n_a_n schrieb:
That can also end with a shovel to the head. And as they say: "light blows to the back of the head increase cognitive ability," which is probably a useful therapy for you? Where there is no cognitive ability, there is no increase...
On the topic: My sister is an architect in Tyrol, working in an office specialized in commercial buildings. They are noticing a significant drop in new orders. Their project books are still fairly full, but are gradually emptying.
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Sunshine38727 Sep 2022 22:52Take a look at today’s latest news about Helma. When such a large contractor runs into trouble, it doesn’t bode well for the industry as a whole. Insolvent subcontractors can quickly mean the end for smaller companies if they are not as big as Helma. So to everyone who is currently building, I really wish you good luck that your main contractor does not go bankrupt, because that could become increasingly likely…
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xMisterDx27 Sep 2022 23:43I’ve experienced this scenario three times already in my relatively short career as an engineer in special plant construction...
2008-2010 financial crisis
2015/2016 diesel scandal
2020/2021 COVID-19 crisis
...and it always follows the same pattern...
Everyone is convinced the world is ending, that the good times are really over (this time for real, honestly, seriously). Orders collapse, managers panic and look for ways to offload their employees (internal transfers, layoffs, severance, early retirement).
Then the world doesn’t end after all, and suddenly there’s too much work because everyone starts placing orders again... but many employees have already been “offloaded” because everyone was sure bankruptcy was imminent.
In the construction trades, there’s another factor:
Companies have been running at 150% capacity for years and can’t keep up. Even if the order books aren’t full through the end of 2023 today— is that just the way it is?
The construction industry has gotten used to being fully booked for 2 or 3 years and not competing with each other. If a client goes elsewhere, no problem—there are 20 more waiting in line... but this is not normal. Sure, we do have some lead time, but it’s more a matter of months, not years.
If we don’t win orders, there might be a few months without work. A company has to be able to handle that.
2008-2010 financial crisis
2015/2016 diesel scandal
2020/2021 COVID-19 crisis
...and it always follows the same pattern...
Everyone is convinced the world is ending, that the good times are really over (this time for real, honestly, seriously). Orders collapse, managers panic and look for ways to offload their employees (internal transfers, layoffs, severance, early retirement).
Then the world doesn’t end after all, and suddenly there’s too much work because everyone starts placing orders again... but many employees have already been “offloaded” because everyone was sure bankruptcy was imminent.
In the construction trades, there’s another factor:
Companies have been running at 150% capacity for years and can’t keep up. Even if the order books aren’t full through the end of 2023 today— is that just the way it is?
The construction industry has gotten used to being fully booked for 2 or 3 years and not competing with each other. If a client goes elsewhere, no problem—there are 20 more waiting in line... but this is not normal. Sure, we do have some lead time, but it’s more a matter of months, not years.
If we don’t win orders, there might be a few months without work. A company has to be able to handle that.
H
hauskauf198728 Sep 2022 00:04xMisterDx schrieb:
I’ve been through this drama three times already in my relatively short career as an engineer in special plant construction...
2008-2010 financial crisis
2015/2016 diesel crisis
2020/2021 coronavirus crisis
...and it always follows more or less the same pattern...
Everyone is sure the world is ending, the good times are really over (now seriously, for real). Orders collapse, managers look around in panic to see where they can get rid of their employees (internal loaning, layoffs, severance, early retirement).
Then the world doesn’t end after all and you don’t know where to put yourself with all the work, because suddenly everyone is ordering again... but many employees have already been "disposed of," since everyone was certain insolvency was looming.
In construction trades, there’s another factor:
Companies have been working at 150% capacity for years, so they’re just not keeping up. And even if the order books aren’t full until the end of 2023 today, is that really the normal course of things?
The construction industry has gotten used to being booked out for 2 or 3 years and not having to compete with each other. If a client buys elsewhere, no problem—there are 20 others waiting at the door... this is by no means normal. Sure, we also have some lead time, but that’s usually a matter of months, not years.
If we don’t win any orders, then it’s quiet for a few months. A business has to be able to handle that.Building industry here. It’s exactly as you say. Keep a cool head, it will all calm down…I agree, but I would like to point out that due to the low-interest environment of recent years and various legal exceptions, insolvencies of unprofitable companies have hardly occurred. These companies will now likely have to file for insolvency one after another, as they can no longer secure financing. I foresee a certain market correction.
Joedreck schrieb:
However, keep in mind that due to the low interest rates in recent years and various legal exemptions, insolvencies of unprofitable companies have hardly occurred.But who is really affected? Mostly medium-sized companies, like the mentioned Helma AG. If the insolvency of a subsidiary causes such serious problems for them, then they are running their business far too risky and at the limit. That’s just maximizing profits in a public company.Local craftsmen are probably less affected. As long as their order books are full, all costs can be easily passed on to the customers.