ᐅ Gas Prices – Where Is Gas Still Affordable?

One question I ask myself in situations like this is: Who benefits?
Ukraine has already been a pawn for the "major powers" for several years. The "revolution" in Ukraine reportedly did not occur without US involvement.
This morning, I read an article stating that the US prefers not to look too closely at Ukraine because they do not want to see the problems there.
Ukraine is currently the site of a proxy war, this time on our doorstep rather than "far away."
Morally, I see Europe’s actions as justified, but from a realpolitik perspective, not. We have imposed sanctions that cost us more than Russia. Add to that the mentality and resilience of the Russian people.
I seriously fear a very, very difficult domestic political situation in the autumn/winter.

OWLer schrieb:

Every industrial company should have risk management in place that actively implements countermeasures for 100% dependence on suppliers. It’s obvious that this isn’t without reason. What I can’t understand is how this has been completely ignored on a macroeconomic level for decades. No, 2nd source activities for, for example, LNG terminals have always been prevented.

This is due to an ideology that claims market outcomes cannot be improved through government planning, and that government planning, often labeled as “central planning,” inevitably leads to disaster.

The problem is that the market is a price-optimization mechanism that manages risks by eliminating participants—and states and whole economies cannot just disappear (where would they go?).

The German government explicitly pushed for the cheapest solution because corporate lobbyists demanded it in the name of competitiveness. Now that a risk event has occurred, the government cannot remain outside the market, and as the example of Uniper shows, “too big to fail” prevents market correction even at the corporate level (for understandable reasons).

Joedreck schrieb:

One question I ask myself in such situations is: Who benefits?
Ukraine has already been a playing field for the “great powers” for many years. The “revolution” in Ukraine reportedly did not happen without US involvement.
This morning I read an article stating that the US prefers not to look closely at Ukraine because they do not want to see the irregularities.
Ukraine is the site of a current proxy war, this time right on our doorstep rather than “far away.”
Morally, I see Europe’s actions as justified, but from a realpolitik perspective, not so much. We have implemented sanctions that cost us more than Russia. Add to that the mentality and resilience of the Russian people.
I seriously fear a very difficult domestic political situation this autumn/winter.

From the actors’ perspective, the benefit lies in spheres of influence and the ability to exert power. Whether this benefit always materializes is another question. But part of the game is that in order to expand one’s own power, one has to limit that of the opponent.

This is called geopolitics, and ideally it should be replaced by a rules-based international order. However, this does not work well because the truly powerful do not comply, as can be seen with the US, Russia, and China.

Regarding the resilience of the Russian people, I consider Western sanctions to be less effective than we like to assume here. Russia is a poor country measured by GDP per capita. The enormous revenues benefit a small group of oligarchs and feed the centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg, which can compete with any Western city.
Yet many Russians live in rural areas quite modestly, so sanctions have not changed much for them. There is no broad middle class that stands to lose a lot.

And it remains true that Russia has enough foreign currency reserves to supply itself through countries that do not impose sanctions. It also doesn’t appear that this will reverse by 180°.

I do not believe that the downturn in the wealthy centers is sufficient to unseat Putin.
And worse: If it does happen, who would come next?

Joedreck schrieb:

which cost us more than Russia.

On what factors did you base that assessment?

Joedreck schrieb:

In addition, there is the mentality and resilience of the Russian people.

Yes, that exists. However, it is no longer nearly as strong as it once was. But certainly, those who have nothing have nothing to lose.

Joedreck schrieb:

I seriously fear a very, very difficult domestic political situation in autumn/winter.

No, it will take longer for the Russian people to get off the couch. After all, they have tolerated everything for over 20 years now.

Mycraft schrieb:

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No, it will still take a long time before the Russian people get off the sofa. They have tolerated everything for over 20 years now.

I’m afraid that @Joedreck was referring to our domestic political situation

This negative mood here is almost depressing.
Yes, of course, things are tough right now, but we all understand the background and why this was and still is necessary.

Personally, as a relatively young person, I’m actually quite glad that we are finally addressing all these energy problems. It’s unfortunate that it took a war to get here, but the shift toward renewables is the best and most cost-effective path we can take.
The coming months might be difficult, but in the long run, this will benefit us and make us more independent and affordable. Besides all the current issues, climate change is also something that gets forgotten too often. With the current changes, hopefully, we are addressing that for the long term as well.

We must not forget that the CDU ran things into the ground in recent years and now we have to deal with the consequences. I believe blaming the current government for this is wrong. They have, in my view, accomplished more in the past few months than the CDU did in the last 16 years.

I’m worried about what the coming months and years will look like for me, but mostly because of the uncertainty. Especially since I’m still at the very beginning and we are currently waiting for the building permit / planning permission.
At the start of the pandemic, I think we were all in a similar situation. Everything was new and no one knew what was coming. Looking back, that wasn’t a huge problem, and here we all are on this forum, many of us even able to afford property. Germany is a strong and, above all, wealthy country. I have a bit more confidence in us. There’s a reason we are doing well.

Spreading panic and getting upset (even though we Germans like to do that) won’t help. We have taken this path and now we have to go through it. So, let’s wait and see what happens.

Maybe we should get back to the topic here and think about how and where to save gas in the most cost-effective way.

jrth2151 schrieb:

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We must not forget that the CDU drove this into the ground over the past years, and now we have to deal with the consequences. I think it’s wrong to blame the current government for that. They have actually accomplished more in the last few months than the CDU did in the last 16 years.

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Um… wasn’t something… right! Wasn’t the SPD in government during the time you mentioned? And aren’t they still part of the current government? ;-)