ᐅ Gas Prices – Where Is Gas Still Affordable?

Deliverer schrieb:

Yeah, damn. What else can I say now?!

Something like:
That you are speechless and have run out of arguments.

i_b_n_a_n schrieb:

from the restarted factories producing photovoltaic modules in Germany.

Depending on the source (from studies over the last 10 years), the manufacturing process requires between 3,000 and 9,000 kWh of cumulative primary energy per 1 kWp of module capacity. In sunny regions (so not in Germany), the ideal energy payback time is around 2 years. Here, it is usually 3 years or more.

However, since production would need to grow exponentially to provide a significant increasing share of photovoltaic capacity, local production and installation of photovoltaic systems over many years will ultimately be an energy consumer rather than an energy producer. Only when approaching the saturation phase does this energy sink turn into a net energy gain for the economy. Until then, we are losing energy overall. But unfortunately, we hardly have any funds left to invest right now... Simple math, but Greenpeace doesn’t usually tell you that 😉

Wind power is much better in this regard; the energy payback time in northern Germany is only about 6 months.

I’ll start by setting aside the polemics. Our shared wishes and goals regarding energy supply are actually clear. When and how we will achieve them, and above all, whether we can, is less so. The right path forward is unlikely to be, as before, a centralized approach with a few large power plants operated by a handful of major corporations. There will need to be many small, demand-oriented solutions adapted to regional conditions. The political framework must also be established first, but it seems to me that progress is currently happening quickly.

I value many technically excellent contributions here, but I would like to remind everyone that each of us is only a part of the whole and certainly will not write the ultimate world-saving theory (or practice) here. As mentioned elsewhere, there is a huge gap between real-world conditions and ideal scenarios. We won’t be able to solve this here in the forum either, but as @Deliverer said, he is glad for anyone who looks beyond the usual limits through these discussions and arguments and takes a future-oriented view with renewable energy instead of a log into the fireplace (though I also like a wood fire—it must be some primal instinct).

Scout** schrieb:

Depending on the source (from studies over the last 10 years), the production chain requires between 3,000 and 9,000 kWh of cumulative primary energy for 1 kWp of module capacity. In sunny regions (so not Germany), you can ideally expect an energy payback time of about 2 years. For us, it's more like 3 years or longer.

However, since production would have to grow exponentially to ensure a significant rising share of photovoltaic capacity, local self-production and installation of photovoltaics over many years will overall represent an energy consumer rather than an energy producer. Only when reaching saturation will there be a net economic gain on a national level. Until then, we are paying in. But right now, we almost have nothing left anyway... Simple math, but that’s something Greenpeace doesn’t usually mention 😉

By the way, wind power is much better in this regard; the energy payback in northern Germany is only about 6 months.

Yes, and that’s why we need to start immediately so that by 2035 we have overcome exactly this point.

And according to recent studies, we are indeed between 3,000 and 9,000 kWh, actually below 5,400 kWh since 2019 for monocrystalline modules which hold 80% of the market share.
My small 6.5 kWp system, extrapolated (it has been running since November), will produce more than 6,000 kWh per year because currently, as of today, I am already at exactly 4,912 kWh just in 2022. So the payback period is under one year. This is not a joke but my personal data.
And yes, we currently have very little spare energy, but we want to invest 100 billion into the armed forces. How much energy do you think it costs to produce a damn tank? (Yes, I am in favor of helping Ukraine with weapons deliveries before anyone assumes I am turning the other cheek.)

By the way, our secretary has a photovoltaic system that will soon expire and will likely add another photovoltaic system and a small wind turbine (rural area, hilltop, farm...).

Almost all of us have some options—wake up and use them, please. Your children and grandchildren will thank you. Have I mentioned that I have 3 children and 7 grandchildren?

@Scout** Honest question: do you know of any Google search terms or sources where someone has calculated how much "emergency fossil fuel" we might still need? So far, it seems a bit like pessimism to me (but what do I know). Another point is how realistic a Europe-wide wind calm is as a scenario (and even in winter and on cloudy days, photovoltaic output is not zero, but yes, obviously significantly lower, which is certainly an issue if heating increasingly relies on electricity). But do you have anything where one could read more about this?

Otherwise, am I roughly understanding your suggestion as "nuclear for the base load, fossil fuels for peak demand"? (And the Greens are seen as unreasonable because they oppose nuclear). I find nuclear problematic in the sense that it still involves humans operating it, and mistakes can be fatal, plus we still simply don’t have a plan for where to store the waste safely for thousands of years. The fact that right now (with soaring gas prices) we probably have fewer problems might be true (although as far as I know, some fuel rods also come from Russia...).

We ourselves live in a low-energy house with a heat pump and a 10 kWp (10 kW peak) photovoltaic system, including an eco-friendly electricity tariff, etc. However, it is definitely worth critically questioning the current planning.

Gas is practically out, coal is unfortunately highly incompatible with our CO2 targets, and no one wants nuclear energy. So once again, the question to the "that worked easy" group: how do we proceed concretely and in a socially acceptable way?