I would like to briefly point out the current impending crisis and discuss possible solutions.
How should one act in view of the current political uncertainties?
Personally, I would completely pull the plug and put everything on hold. The uncertainties are simply too great. I wouldn’t put too much trust in contracts. There will simply be no more materials available. The shortages at building material suppliers are growing, many yards are practically empty. Delivery times are currently often extremely long, so a reliable completion date cannot be given.
Therefore, please share your experiences here regarding delivery times and price increases.
Either prices are currently skyrocketing, delivery times are exploding, or both. Energy-intensive building materials are no longer being produced. Raw materials are no longer available. Bricks, roof tiles, tiles, insulation materials, wood, steel products, electrical cables, photovoltaic systems, windows, reinforcing steel, concrete, cement, paints, and plasters.
Without gas and oil from Russia, the lights will soon go out here. Nobody should fool themselves. There won’t even be diesel available for the excavator to dig the foundation pit.
How should one act in view of the current political uncertainties?
Personally, I would completely pull the plug and put everything on hold. The uncertainties are simply too great. I wouldn’t put too much trust in contracts. There will simply be no more materials available. The shortages at building material suppliers are growing, many yards are practically empty. Delivery times are currently often extremely long, so a reliable completion date cannot be given.
Therefore, please share your experiences here regarding delivery times and price increases.
Either prices are currently skyrocketing, delivery times are exploding, or both. Energy-intensive building materials are no longer being produced. Raw materials are no longer available. Bricks, roof tiles, tiles, insulation materials, wood, steel products, electrical cables, photovoltaic systems, windows, reinforcing steel, concrete, cement, paints, and plasters.
Without gas and oil from Russia, the lights will soon go out here. Nobody should fool themselves. There won’t even be diesel available for the excavator to dig the foundation pit.
DennisW schrieb:
I can’t confirm that at all.
No idea what kind of dystopian world you live in.
The construction sites are well attended, and new projects have been regularly starting here for several weeks and are progressing quickly.
And I’m speaking about the Berlin and Potsdam area as well as personal experiences from new developments in Düsseldorf and Neuss. I can confirm that. For example, our shell contractor has been entering new contracts only with steel and concrete price adjustment clauses since last year. He sees no problem in timely material procurement and is still agreeing to contractual completion dates with penalties for delays. He probably wouldn’t do that if nothing could be foreseen or planned.
In this region, a large public construction project was recently postponed for about a year due to the current situation. But that involves completely different volumes and circumstances.
Edit:
Peter Pohlmann schrieb:
Do you have enough reserves to cover both the upcoming loan payments and the current rent, as well as significantly increased material costs? Since unpredictable price increases were already common last year due to COVID-19, we have built in a solid buffer. I definitely wouldn’t recommend planning completely at the limit nowadays.
Peter Pohlmann schrieb:
What I'm naturally interested in is, when you sign a contract with a construction company, plan a move-in date, and have also signed the loan agreement, and then for whatever reason there is a delay—let's say due to unavailable roof tiles.
Do you have enough financial reserves to cover both the due loan installments, the rent you’re still paying, and significantly increased material costs?
If we consider the worst-case scenario.
So, I already have two construction companies with which I would sign a turnkey fixed-price contract. Admittedly, that's not cheap at the moment, but it is a fixed price. Therefore, increased material costs are not a concern for me.We could financially manage construction delays and the resulting double financial burden, yes.
B
Benutzer20029 Mar 2022 09:16@Peter Pohlmann
So now you’re not building because the future seems too uncertain to you. In recent years, you couldn’t build because prices exploded and it was unclear how much further they would rise.
In the future, you might not build either because the value of the house may decline again after the peak phase.
There will always be reasons you find to avoid doing things!!! It doesn’t have to be limited to building a house.
The fact is, supply chains may be disrupted, but there’s no sign that everything is going downhill. Who on the global market really cares about Ukraine or Russia? They are not significant countries. Sad, but true.
On top of that, interest rates are historically low. It doesn’t really matter whether rates are at 1.0 or 2.3%; historically, the average is around 4%. If you can’t handle an increase of 1% in interest, simply build smaller and cut back. Our parents managed to do that as well. Here you often read about single-family homes for two people with 180 sqm (1,938 sq ft), double garages, KNX (home automation), etc.
Is all that really necessary?
Conclusion: It is still possible to build well, but you have to plan carefully and realistically.
So now you’re not building because the future seems too uncertain to you. In recent years, you couldn’t build because prices exploded and it was unclear how much further they would rise.
In the future, you might not build either because the value of the house may decline again after the peak phase.
There will always be reasons you find to avoid doing things!!! It doesn’t have to be limited to building a house.
The fact is, supply chains may be disrupted, but there’s no sign that everything is going downhill. Who on the global market really cares about Ukraine or Russia? They are not significant countries. Sad, but true.
On top of that, interest rates are historically low. It doesn’t really matter whether rates are at 1.0 or 2.3%; historically, the average is around 4%. If you can’t handle an increase of 1% in interest, simply build smaller and cut back. Our parents managed to do that as well. Here you often read about single-family homes for two people with 180 sqm (1,938 sq ft), double garages, KNX (home automation), etc.
Is all that really necessary?
Conclusion: It is still possible to build well, but you have to plan carefully and realistically.
P
Peter Pohlmann29 Mar 2022 09:32Contracts are one thing, fulfilling them is another.
In the automotive sector, it currently appears that while the purchase agreement regarding the price is being honored by the manufacturer, the delivery dates are not. In the case of an accident or major repair, there simply are no vehicles available on the market. It is becoming increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to obtain replacements.
Vehicle manufacturers simply cannot produce because parts come from the economically less significant regions of Ukraine or Russia. I am not sure whether if Russia, as the world’s second-largest exporter of wood, is excluded due to sanctions, this will not affect the global market.
In the automotive sector, it currently appears that while the purchase agreement regarding the price is being honored by the manufacturer, the delivery dates are not. In the case of an accident or major repair, there simply are no vehicles available on the market. It is becoming increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to obtain replacements.
Vehicle manufacturers simply cannot produce because parts come from the economically less significant regions of Ukraine or Russia. I am not sure whether if Russia, as the world’s second-largest exporter of wood, is excluded due to sanctions, this will not affect the global market.
B
Benutzer20029 Mar 2022 09:45Peter Pohlmann schrieb:
I'm not sure if Russia, as the second-largest exporter of wood, is excluded due to sanctions, whether this won't affect the global market.About one-tenth of the wood comes from there. So what? The world won't come to a halt because of that. No one denies that it will become more difficult.I understand Peter’s way of thinking, but to me it sounds a bit too post-apocalyptic.
We will definitely feel some impact. However, just because there are supply shortages of parts in the automotive industry doesn’t mean that nobody can build a single car anymore.
It’s all a matter of probability. How likely is it that a certain scenario will occur? The scenario in Peter’s mind seems rather unlikely to me.
Other countries also have nice factories.
We will definitely feel some impact. However, just because there are supply shortages of parts in the automotive industry doesn’t mean that nobody can build a single car anymore.
It’s all a matter of probability. How likely is it that a certain scenario will occur? The scenario in Peter’s mind seems rather unlikely to me.
Other countries also have nice factories.