ᐅ Heat pumps, electricity prices, gas prices – where is the trend heading?

Hello everyone,

Yes, the topic in the title really concerns me. And I can imagine I’m not alone in this.

Basically, it’s like reading a crystal ball, but based on the information I’ve gathered so far, this is what it means to me:

1) Electricity prices will rise significantly over the next few years due to the Renewable Energy Act surcharge and grid expansion. Just this morning, I read another interesting and shocking article about this.

2) The heat pump lobby is working hard to position the heat pump as the “cure-all” solution for the energy transition. The government is jumping on this bandwagon.

3) In the current version of the Energy Saving Ordinance, electricity is rated much more favorably than gas. This means that simply by using a heat pump, your energy certificate looks much better than someone combining gas with solar.

4) From 2020 onwards, every new building should meet Passive House standards—so it’s foreseeable that gas will become the new diesel in about four years. “Penalty taxes” on fossil fuels like gas and oil are currently being debated sharply. The draft legislation is expected before the summer break—certainly not to the advantage of us homeowners!

5) If you give in to the fear that gas will soon be totally out, you end up in the hands of energy companies, who have just been forced to pay for a (ridiculous) part of the energy transition (and the phase-out of nuclear power plants)—the rest falls on the government, and thus on us.

6) Because of point 5, as a good citizen with an eco-conscious mindset, you become completely dependent on the electricity providers. Customers gain importance... no longer are you just relying on household electricity, now a new cash cow emerges—that of the heat pump operators. It’s an easy way to punish customers again for the nuclear phase-out through expensive tariffs. In many places, heat pump tariffs have already collapsed. Consumers have to accept rising prices. And who changes electricity suppliers every year—hardly anyone!

7) Assuming annual price increases of 3% or more, it makes a difference whether I only pay more for household electricity or also for heating electricity—it’s clear we will definitely continue to be charged heavily.

8) Gas prices are currently low and stable. In many areas, they are being reduced. Natural gas reserves will last for thousands of years. This means price increases are not triggered by a lack of supply, especially since Iran—with the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves—will soon enter the market.

Conclusion: The heating decision for a new building has never been harder! It has been weighing on me for a year now. At first, we planned for an air-to-water heat pump, then gas, then back to air-to-water heat pump, and now I’m wavering again on whether gas might actually be the right choice.

Heat pump supporters like to say that less energy is consumed than with gas, and that electricity and maintenance costs for a gas heating system are eliminated, as well as chimney sweeping. But is that really true? And can you rely on that if electricity prices keep rising and gas prices stay constant or even fall? Sooner or later, mandatory maintenance for heat pumps will also come. This is currently being discussed—as the trades are losing the lucrative service contracts for oil and gas systems.

Can we expect long-term low prices here, and will this widen the cost gap between gas and heat pumps? And how can you make yourself less dependent on the long-term arbitrariness of providers when choosing a heat pump? Photovoltaics + storage? Certainly an option, but also the most expensive.

What is your view on this? How did you make your decision? Looking forward to the discussion.

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Thank you!
BuildingExpert